PETROCHINA(601857) 光大证券·2024-11-25 07:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Petroleum, with current prices at 8.01 CNY and 5.55 HKD respectively [2]. Core Views - China Petroleum is committed to ensuring natural gas supply and driving technological innovation in exploration and development, aiming to establish itself as a sustainable energy leader [5][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the seasonal increase in natural gas demand during the winter months, with a significant rise in consumption projected [9][11]. - The development of unconventional oil and gas resources, particularly shale oil and coalbed methane, is accelerating, contributing to the company's production and reserves replacement [12][13]. - The company is enhancing its operational quality and efficiency through reforms and technological advancements, positioning itself for sustainable growth despite market fluctuations [16][17]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The report indicates a relative performance of -2.24% over 1 month, -25.30% over 3 months, and +8.13% over 1 year, while absolute performance shows -4.53% over 1 month, -9.01% over 3 months, and +18.20% over 1 year [2]. Market Data - Total shares outstanding are 1,830.21 million, with a total market capitalization of 1,465.998 billion CNY. The stock has fluctuated between a low of 6.34 CNY and a high of 10.51 CNY over the past year [2]. Natural Gas Supply and Demand - The report highlights the importance of natural gas supply during the winter, with a focus on meeting the demand for heating and ensuring stable supply for the population [7][9]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's apparent natural gas consumption reached 3,166 billion cubic meters, marking a 10.0% year-on-year increase [9][11]. Unconventional Oil and Gas Development - China Petroleum has initiated a shale oil revolution since December 2018, with significant discoveries in the Ordos Basin, and aims to establish several demonstration areas for efficient production by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [12][13]. - The company has also made breakthroughs in coalbed methane exploration, with substantial geological reserves identified in the Ordos Basin [13]. Quality Management and Operational Efficiency - The company is focusing on enhancing its quality management systems and operational efficiency, with specific actions to improve product quality and brand value [8][14]. - The report emphasizes the need for a proactive approach to risk management and quality assurance to support the company's long-term goals [8][14]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 175.9 billion, 180.3 billion, and 185.0 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96, 0.99, and 1.01 CNY per share [18].