BIDU(BIDU) 广发证券·2024-11-26 07:54Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company's US and Hong Kong-listed shares [1] - The current price is 76.65 for Hong Kong shares [2] - The fair value is estimated at 105 for Hong Kong shares [3] - The previous rating was also "Buy" for both US and Hong Kong shares [4] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 123.675 billion in 2022 to RMB 150.291 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 7% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from RMB 20.68 billion in 2022 to RMB 34.491 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20% [6] - Non-GAAP EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 59 in 2022 to RMB 98 in 2026 [6] - ROE is expected to remain stable at around 8% from 2023 to 2025, before slightly declining to 7% in 2026 [6] Core Business Analysis - The company's 24Q3 total revenue reached RMB 33.557 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus estimates [17] - Core advertising revenue declined by 4% YoY in 24Q3, while non-advertising revenue grew by 12% YoY, driven by AI cloud services [17] - The company's generative AI technology is expected to enhance search experience and accelerate commercialization potential in 2024 [17] Valuation and Projections - The report uses SOTP valuation method, deriving a fair value of 105 per share for Hong Kong shares [20] - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are adjusted to RMB 132.6 billion and RMB 140.6 billion, representing YoY changes of -1% and +6% respectively [20] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 and 2025 is projected at RMB 26.9 billion and RMB 28.7 billion, with YoY changes of -6% and +7% respectively [20] Financial Ratios - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to improve from 12 in 2022 to 4 in 2026 [6] - Non-GAAP P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 10 in 2022 to 6 in 2026 [6] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 52% from 2023 to 2026 [23] - Net margin is forecasted to increase from 17% in 2022 to 23% in 2026 [23]