PSBC(601658) 万联证券·2024-11-28 01:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is maintained at "Add" [3][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the bank's strong deposit advantages and the positive impact of the adjustment in savings agency fees on net profit, projecting contributions of approximately 70 billion yuan in 2024 and 140 billion yuan in 2025 [2][30]. - The bank's asset quality remains robust, with non-performing loan rates lower than the average of state-owned banks, and a focus on retail loans which may experience short-term pressure [2][68]. - Continued investment in technology is highlighted as a key driver for business, management, and risk control improvements [2][78]. - The long-term outlook suggests significant potential for retail business growth and efficiency improvements through financial technology [2][87]. Summary by Sections Savings Agency Fee Adjustment - The bank's savings agency fee rate has been adjusted, resulting in a reduction of approximately 16 basis points, saving 15.06 billion yuan in fees [2][30]. - The adjustment will take effect from July 1, 2024, and is expected to positively impact net profits in the following years [2][30]. Deposit Advantages - As of June 2024, the bank's deposits reached 14.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, and personal deposits accounting for 88.9% of total deposits [2][36]. - The bank's deposit cost is relatively low at 1.48%, which is advantageous compared to peers [2][38]. Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan rate stands at 0.84%, with a focus on maintaining a high proportion of secured loans [2][68]. - The bank's asset quality indicators are favorable compared to state-owned banks, with a low non-performing loan generation rate [2][68]. Technology Investment - In 2023, the bank invested 11.278 billion yuan in technology, representing a 5.88% increase year-on-year [2][78]. - The bank is enhancing its technology workforce, with over 7,000 IT personnel across the organization [2][78]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The bank's revenue growth is projected at 0.04% for 2024, 4.74% for 2025, and 6.32% for 2026, with net profit growth of -2.23%, 6.43%, and 8.78% respectively [2][88]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the bank's long-term growth potential, particularly in retail banking and technology-driven efficiency improvements [2][87].