Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in new home transaction volume, with a total transaction value of 7,368 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [3][4] - The company's net income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 62.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 5.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The "second curve" strategy focusing on home decoration, rental, and emerging businesses has shown strong growth potential, with these segments collectively growing by 54.3% year-on-year [4] Financial Summary - In Q3 2024, the company's total revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, up 26.8% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 22.7%, down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - The company’s operating expenses were 4.4 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a fee rate of 19.5%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the end of 2023 [5] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 175.17 billion HKD [7] Business Performance - The new home business revenue reached 7.7 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, while the transaction value was 227.6 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The rental business revenue surged by 118.4% year-on-year, with a total transaction value of 27.3 billion yuan, up 31.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The company has increased its store count to 48,200, a year-on-year growth of 12.1%, and the number of active agents reached 476,000, up 11% year-on-year [5] Market Outlook - The market recovery is ongoing, with new home transaction areas in key cities showing a month-on-month increase of 44% in October 2024 [6] - The company expects a positive impact on second-hand home transactions due to new tax policies and incentives introduced in November 2024 [6] - The company forecasts an EPS of 2.22 yuan for 2024, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the potential for continued growth in the fourth quarter [12]
贝壳-W：2024年三季度业绩点评报告：新房成交逆势增长，第二曲线延续高增