HUAXIN CEMENT(600801) 东吴证券·2024-12-02 03:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 83.81% of the equity of two target companies in Nigeria for a total of 278 million in cash, significantly enhancing its overseas cement capacity by 47% [2] - The acquisition will strengthen the company's presence in Africa, filling a gap in the West African market, and positioning Nigeria as a strategic hub due to its rapid economic and infrastructure growth [2] - The target company is one of Nigeria's oldest cement enterprises, with a cement production capacity of 10.6 million tons per year and concrete production capacity of 400,000 cubic meters per year [2] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's operational efficiency through potential technical and management optimizations, leading to cost reductions and increased production [3] - The transaction is valued at approximately 6.3 times EV/EBITDA, indicating a reasonable pricing compared to historical transactions and replacement value [3] - The Nigerian cement market has significant growth potential, with high market concentration and favorable industry dynamics, which will support stable industry profitability [3] - The company forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.75 billion, 2.35 billion, and 2.75 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, 12, and 10 times [4] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to increase from 33.757 billion yuan in 2023 to 42.956 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.23% [1][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 1.748 billion yuan in 2024 before rebounding to 2.747 billion yuan in 2026 [1][4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.84 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.32 yuan in 2026 [1][4]