美团-W：2024Q3业绩点评：利润稳健释放，生态健康成长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of Meituan in Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 93.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 92 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, also above the consensus estimate of 11.7 billion yuan [1] - The core local business profit and new business losses were better than expected, with core local business revenue of 69.4 billion yuan (yoy +20.2%) and operating profit of 14.6 billion yuan (yoy +44.4%) [2] - The delivery profit showed steady growth, with instant delivery transaction volume (including food delivery and flash purchase orders) reaching 7.078 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [3] - The new business losses narrowed more than expected, with the overall new business achieving profitability [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 220.08 billion yuan, with projections of 276.85 billion yuan for 2023, 337.62 billion yuan for 2024, 390.80 billion yuan for 2025, and 447.46 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 22.86% in 2022 and a projected 25.80% in 2023 [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2022 was a loss of 6.686 billion yuan, with a projected profit of 38.664 billion yuan for 2024, 49.913 billion yuan for 2025, and 64.193 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [1] Business Segments - The core local business revenue for Q3 2024 was 69.4 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 21.0%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Flash purchase volume grew by 35% year-on-year, with user numbers and transaction frequency also showing double-digit growth [3] Future Outlook - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 45.248 billion yuan, 57.257 billion yuan, and 71.242 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 21, 17, and 13 times [4]