英伟达：业绩增长超预期，Blackwell四季度出货

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA (NVDA.O) [1] Core Views - NVIDIA's Q3 FY2025 revenue reached $35.08 billion, a 94$19.3 billion, up 109% YoY, and Non-GAAP net income of $20 billion, up 100$30.8 billion, driven by strong demand for the Hopper computing platform, with cloud service providers contributing approximately 50% of data center revenue [2] - The Blackwell series, set to begin production in Q4, is expected to face supply shortages in FY2026, with a 2.2x performance improvement in LLM benchmarks [2] - Gaming and AI PC revenue grew 15% YoY to $3.3 billion, exceeding market expectations, with 20 new GeForce RTX and DLSS games launched [3] - Professional visualization revenue increased 17$486 million, while automotive and robotics revenue grew 72% YoY and 30% QoQ to $450 million [3] - Q4 FY2025 revenue guidance is approximately$37.5 billion, representing a 69.7% YoY increase, with GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins expected at 73% and 73.5%, respectively [3] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2025-FY2027 is projected at $131.78 billion,$215.03 billion, and $266.35 billion, respectively, with Non-GAAP net income of$72.48 billion, $120.63 billion, and$151.07 billion [11] - The company's GAAP/Non-GAAP net income CAGR is expected to be 69.9% and 67.2% over the next three years, with P/E ratios of 48x, 29x, and 23x [11] - Data center revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 144% in FY2025, 70% in FY2026, and 25% in FY2027 [9] - Gaming revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% in FY2025 and 10% in FY2026 and FY2027 [9] - Automotive revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 26.5% in FY2025, 40% in FY2026, and 23.5% in FY2027 [9] Competitive Positioning - NVIDIA maintains a leading market position in AI GPUs, supported by its CUDA software ecosystem and continuous innovation [11] - The company's high-end GPU market share is expected to remain above 80% [8] - NVIDIA's Blackwell series is anticipated to drive significant growth in data center and AI-related markets [2] Industry Comparison - NVIDIA's valuation is favorable compared to peers, with a 2025E P/E of 47.97x, lower than the industry average of 42.27x [14] - Key competitors include AMD, Broadcom, and Intel, with NVIDIA's market cap significantly higher at $347.64 billion [14]