GWMOTOR(601633) 国投证券·2024-12-04 08:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy-A" with a target price of 41.08 CNY per share, based on the closing price of 27.77 CNY on December 3, 2024 [2][6]. Core Insights - November sales showed a positive turning point with wholesale sales reaching 127,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 4% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming launch of the Tank 500Hi4Z, which is anticipated to enhance its market presence in the urban SUV segment [2]. - The overall market for off-road vehicles is projected to expand, with the Tank series expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles was 36,000 units, up 12% month-on-month and 15% year-on-year, while fuel vehicle sales were 91,000 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 8% and year-on-year stability [1]. - Retail sales for November are estimated at approximately 67,000 units, with new energy vehicle retail sales around 31,000 units, indicating a consistent inventory level [1]. Product Performance - The Tank series sold 20,000 units in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 9% [1]. - The Haval brand sold 78,000 units in November, with the Manglong model achieving a remarkable 21% month-on-month growth and 83% year-on-year growth [1]. - The Wey brand's sales reached 7,046 units, a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 146%, driven by the Blue Mountain model [1]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for Great Wall Motors for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is estimated at 13.17 billion, 17.55 billion, and 19.66 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 13.5, and 12.1 [6][7]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 173.21 billion CNY in 2023 to 290.93 billion CNY in 2025 [7][10]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the company is entering a new growth phase, with significant potential in the export market due to a diverse product lineup and strong technological capabilities [2][6]. - The anticipated launch of new models and the expansion of direct sales channels are expected to drive domestic sales growth [2].