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裕元集团：制造业务利润率回升，零售业务静待客流改善
00551YUE YUEN IND(00551) 山西证券·2024-12-04 10:13

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 48% compared to its current market value [6][131]. Core Insights - The company operates in both upstream manufacturing and downstream retail segments of the sports footwear industry, positioning itself as a leader in the market. It achieved a revenue of 7.89billionin2023,withmanufacturingandretailcontributing64.17.89 billion in 2023, with manufacturing and retail contributing 64.1% and 35.9% respectively [1][25]. - The manufacturing segment is expected to see a recovery in orders, with a projected footwear shipment volume of 250 million pairs in 2024, reflecting a double-digit year-on-year growth [1][61]. - The retail segment, while currently facing challenges, is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in foot traffic and improved operational efficiency through digital initiatives [3][115]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The company is a leading global manufacturer of sports and casual footwear, with a strong focus on efficiency improvements that enhance profit margins. In 2023, it shipped 218 million pairs of footwear, generating 5.06 billion in revenue [1][29]. - The company has established production bases in Indonesia and Vietnam, which are crucial for its operational efficiency. As of the end of 2023, the workforce in manufacturing totaled 242,600 employees, with a significant portion based in these countries [40][41]. - The company has a diversified customer base, with major clients including Nike and Adidas, accounting for 40% and 20% of manufacturing revenue respectively. The company maintains a moderate level of customer concentration, reducing dependency on any single client [44][44]. Retail Business - The company is the second-largest sports goods distributor in China, with over 3,523 retail stores and a revenue of approximately 20.06billionin2023.Theretailsegmentiscurrentlyfocusedonenhancingstorequalityandoptimizingthesalesnetwork[3][85].−Theretailbusinesshasbeenimpactedbyexternalmacroeconomicconditions,leadingtoadeclineinsame−storesales.However,theintroductionofdigitalsaleschannels,suchasmicro−stores,hascontributedpositivelytooverallsales[3][99].−Thecompanyisimplementingadigitaltransformationstrategytoimproveoperationalefficiencyandcustomerengagement,whichincludesupgradingitsERPsystemsandenhancingin−storetechnology[115][116].FinancialForecastandValuation−Thecompanyisprojectedtoachieverevenuesof20.06 billion in 2023. The retail segment is currently focused on enhancing store quality and optimizing the sales network [3][85]. - The retail business has been impacted by external macroeconomic conditions, leading to a decline in same-store sales. However, the introduction of digital sales channels, such as micro-stores, has contributed positively to overall sales [3][99]. - The company is implementing a digital transformation strategy to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement, which includes upgrading its ERP systems and enhancing in-store technology [115][116]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.13 billion, 8.82billion,and8.82 billion, and 9.56 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 450million,450 million, 517 million, and $575 million [6][131]. - The valuation approach includes a 12x multiple for the manufacturing business and a 7x multiple for the retail business, leading to a target market capitalization of HKD 41.8 billion [6][131].