Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (600809) 德邦证券·2024-12-06 05:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained at "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to high-quality development and strategic marketing initiatives, including a focus on premium products and expanding market share both domestically and internationally [4][5] - The company aims to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 370.6 billion, 415.1 billion, and 469.0 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.1%, 12.0%, and 13.0% [5][10] - The report highlights the successful performance of various product lines, with the Qinghua series and others achieving full-year revenue targets by October 2023 [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The stock price of Shanxi Fenjiu is currently at 198.77 yuan, with a market performance comparison showing a decline of 23% against the CSI 300 index [2] Financial Data and Forecast - The projected operating income for 2024 is 37,060 million yuan, with a net profit forecast of 12,339 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 18.2% [10] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 75.5% for the next few years, with a slight increase to 76.0% by 2026 [10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a "123" revival program, with specific phases aimed at consolidating achievements and enhancing production efficiency from 2025 to 2030 [4] - Shanxi Fenjiu plans to implement a controlled volume strategy in its home market while expanding its dealer network in other regions to enhance overall market presence [4][5]