2024年前三季度旅游行业运行分析

Industry Overview - The tourism industry transitioned from rapid recovery to stable development in the first three quarters of 2024, with domestic tourism showing growth in both the number of trips and total spending, while outbound and inbound tourism are still in the recovery phase [3] - Domestic tourism trips reached 4.237 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, recovering to 92.2% of the 2019 level, with urban residents accounting for 3.270 billion trips (up 14.9%) and rural residents for 967 million trips (up 16.8%) [3] - Domestic tourism revenue reached 4.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, exceeding the 2019 level, with urban residents contributing 3.71 trillion yuan (up 17.1%) and rural residents contributing 640 billion yuan (up 22.5%) [3] - During the 2024 National Day holiday, domestic tourism trips reached 765 million, a 5.9% increase year-on-year and 10.2% higher than 2019, with total spending reaching 700.817 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year and 7.9% higher than 2019 [4] Outbound and Inbound Tourism - In the first three quarters of 2024, the number of inbound and outbound trips reached 447 million, a 5.42% increase compared to 2023 [7] - Policies such as online processing of entry-exit documents and visa-free trials for countries like South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand have been implemented to stimulate demand, but recovery is still affected by visa policies, international flight availability, and pricing [7] Sub-Sectors Analysis Scenic Spots - In the first three quarters of 2024, the profitability and operating cash flow of most scenic spots underperformed expectations, with a 16.06% decline in total profits for 13 listed scenic spot companies compared to the same period in 2023 [11] - Operating cash flow for these companies decreased by 27.00% year-on-year, mainly due to increased cash outflows for operations and taxes [11] Hotels and Catering - In the first half of 2024, the hotel industry faced intensified competition, with revenue, average room rates, and occupancy rates declining slightly year-on-year [15] - Star-rated hotels saw a 2.80% year-on-year decline in revenue, with average room rates and occupancy rates fluctuating across different quarters [15][18] Travel Agencies - In the first half of 2024, domestic tourism organized by travel agencies grew by 17.85% year-on-year, recovering to 88.57% of the 2019 level, while outbound and inbound tourism remained at 19.10% of the 2019 level [29] - The number of travel agencies increased by 24.61% in 2023, with total revenue reaching 444.273 billion yuan, a 177.40% year-on-year increase [26] Duty-Free Shopping - In the first three quarters of 2024, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales declined by 31.1% year-on-year to 24.01 billion yuan, with the number of shoppers and items purchased also decreasing [32] - China Duty Free Group dominates the domestic duty-free market, holding approximately 80% of the market share [33] Industry Policies - Since 2023, the government has introduced multiple policies to support the recovery and high-quality development of the tourism industry, focusing on increasing product supply, optimizing infrastructure, improving the consumption environment, and expanding financing channels [36][37] Bond Issuance and Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, tourism bond issuers raised 52.867 billion yuan, with a net financing inflow of 14.693 billion yuan, and the total outstanding bonds reached 126.479 billion yuan [41] - The overall profitability of tourism bond issuers declined, with total revenue decreasing by 7.17% year-on-year and total profits dropping by 2.31% [43][45] Outlook - The tourism industry is expected to maintain stable growth, driven by increasing demand, comprehensive recovery across various sectors, and supportive government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and promoting sustainable development [52]