Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Implementation Opinions" aims to enhance the construction, operation, and management mechanisms of major water conservancy projects, emphasizing high-quality construction, efficient operation, and effective management [5][16]. - The report highlights the importance of integrating investment and operation in water services, encouraging local governments to form integrated water service enterprises and allowing private sector participation [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Content and Intent of the Implementation Opinions - The "Implementation Opinions" focus on high-quality construction, high-level operation, and efficient management of major water conservancy projects, promoting the establishment of integrated water service enterprises and encouraging private sector involvement [5][10]. - It emphasizes the need for a structured approach to project investment, construction, and operation, ensuring project quality and safety [5][6]. 2. Mechanisms for High-Quality Construction - The report outlines five key aspects to ensure high-quality construction: optimizing investment models, improving preliminary work mechanisms, orderly project implementation, ensuring construction quality and safety, and regulating market behavior [6][7]. - Encouragement for local water service companies to form integrated enterprises is expected to enhance resource allocation and project execution [6][12]. 3. Mechanisms for High-Level Operation - Four aspects are highlighted to ensure high-level operation: asset confirmation, fostering specialized maintenance entities, enhancing safety management, and maximizing comprehensive project benefits [8]. - The shift from direct government management to service purchasing and entrusted operation is encouraged for public welfare projects [8]. 4. Mechanisms for High-Efficiency Management - The report emphasizes three areas for efficient management: leveraging digital technology, solidifying legal management foundations, and enhancing industry supervision [9]. - The use of smart technologies is expected to improve risk management and operational efficiency [9]. 5. Impact on Water Service Enterprises - The "Implementation Opinions" provide policy support and clear business direction for water service enterprises, enhancing their responsibilities in project quality and safety [10][16]. - The integration of investment and operation is expected to lower risks and stabilize revenue expectations for water service enterprises [13][16]. - Optimizing acceptance and settlement processes is anticipated to improve cash flow efficiency for these enterprises [14]. - Asset confirmation and revitalization are expected to broaden financing channels and alleviate financial pressures [14][16]. - The focus on compliance and quality management is likely to benefit technically proficient and compliant water service enterprises, promoting high-quality industry development [15][16].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, keeping liquidity abundant. The yields of interest - rate bonds showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, while the issuance rates of credit bonds decreased. The total issuance of interest - rate and credit bonds increased steadily year - on - year. Credit risks were converging. Looking forward to 2026, bond market yields are expected to remain volatile at low levels, credit spreads may show structural differentiation, the bond market issuance scale is expected to grow steadily, and bond market credit risks will continue to converge with the default rate possibly at a historical low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Overall Situation - In 2025, China's bond market issued a total of 88.52 trillion yuan of various bonds, a year - on - year increase of 12.35%. Excluding inter - bank certificates of deposit, the total issuance of various bonds was 54.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.40%. By the end of 2025, the stock of various bonds in China reached 196.17 trillion yuan, a growth of 11.45% compared with the end of 2024 [4]. 3.1.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Yield Trend**: The yield of China's treasury bonds showed an overall fluctuating upward trend in 2025. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuated in five different stages throughout the year, affected by factors such as economic data, policy expectations, and market sentiment [5]. - **Issuance Scale**: The bond market issued 32.39 trillion yuan of interest - rate bonds in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 20.63%. The issuance scale of each type of bond increased. By the end of 2025, the stock of interest - rate bond varieties in China's bond market was 123.51 trillion yuan, a growth of 14.75% compared with the previous year - end [8][9]. 3.1.2 Credit Bonds - **Issuance Interest Rate**: In 2025, the issuance rates of major credit bonds showed a downward trend. Taking the credit bonds issued by AAA - rated entities as an example, the average issuance rates of major bond types with various maturities decreased [10]. - **Issuance Volume**: The issuance scale of credit bonds reached 22.06 trillion yuan in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 8.14%. By the end of 2025, the stock of credit bonds was 51.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. Different sub - categories of credit bonds had different issuance trends [13]. - **Non - financial Enterprise Bonds**: In 2025, non - financial enterprises issued 15,790 issues of bonds with a total issuance scale of 13.94 trillion yuan. The issuance period and scale increased by 2.87% and 1.70% year - on - year respectively. By the end of 2025, the stock of non - financial enterprise bonds was 31.29 trillion yuan, a growth of 10.00% compared with the previous year - end [14]. - **Non - policy Financial Bonds**: Financial institutions issued 1,488 issues of non - policy financial bonds in 2025, with a total issuance scale of 5.66 trillion yuan. The issuance period and scale increased by 34.54% and 24.74% year - on - year respectively. By the end of 2025, the stock of non - policy financial bonds was 15.66 trillion yuan, a growth of 11.35% compared with the previous year - end [18]. - **Asset - backed Securities**: In 2025, the issuance period, number, and scale of asset - backed securities all increased by about 15%. By the end of 2025, the stock of asset - backed securities was 3.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.16% compared with the previous year - end [22]. - **Other Credit Bonds**: In 2025, the issuance period and scale of other credit bonds increased year - on - year. By the end of 2025, the stock of other credit bonds was 1.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 14.81% compared with the previous year - end [24]. 3.2 Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Issuance of Urban Investment Bonds and Industrial Bonds**: In 2025, the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased, while the issuance of industrial bonds increased. The net financing of urban investment bonds decreased, and that of industrial bonds increased [27]. - **Rating and Credit - grade Distribution**: The proportion of bonds without debt ratings continued to increase, and the proportion of bonds issued by AAA - rated entities continued to rise. The credit grades of non - financial enterprise credit bond issuers were mainly distributed between AAA and AA [29][34]. - **Enterprise Nature of Issuers**: In 2025, state - owned enterprises were still the main issuers of non - financial enterprise bonds. The proportion of bonds issued by central state - owned enterprises and private enterprises increased, while that of local state - owned enterprises decreased [36]. - **Regional and Industry Differentiation**: The regions and industries involved in non - financial enterprise bond issuers remained differentiated. In terms of regions, the issuance scale of non - financial enterprise bonds in some regions increased, while in some others it decreased. In terms of industries, the issuance scale of some industries increased, while in some others it decreased [41]. - **Innovative Bond Issuance**: In 2025, the issuance of innovative bonds maintained a good momentum. The issuance period and scale of science and technology innovation bonds increased by about 80%, and the issuance of other innovative bonds also increased significantly [43]. - **Credit Risk Convergence**: In 2025, the number of new default issuers, the number of defaulted bonds, and the default amount in China's bond market all decreased year - on - year. The number of new extended - maturity issuers decreased, but the number of extended - maturity bonds and the extended - maturity scale increased. Overall, the bond market credit risk showed a converging trend [47]. 3.3 Bond Market Outlook - **Yield and Credit Spread**: Interest - rate bond yields are expected to remain volatile at low levels, with limited upside and downside space. Credit bond yields are expected to follow interest - rate bonds and maintain a low - level volatile trend. Credit spreads are expected to remain low, but market disturbances may increase [48][49]. - **Issuance Scale**: In 2026, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to increase due to a more active fiscal policy. The issuance scale of financial institution bonds in the credit bond market is expected to grow steadily, while the issuance of urban investment bonds may shrink slightly, and the issuance of industrial bonds is expected to grow continuously [50]. - **Credit Risk**: In 2026, the bond market credit risk is expected to continue to converge, and the default rate may be at a historical low. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real estate enterprise bonds, financial bonds, and convertible bonds, have different credit risk characteristics and need to be monitored [51][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025, affected by the changing external environment, China's economy advanced steadily, social confidence continued to improve, and new achievements were made in high - quality development. However, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand was prominent, and there were many risks and hidden dangers in key areas. Against this background, regulatory authorities took multiple measures to continuously improve the bond market system and mechanism, innovatively launched the "Technology Board" in the bond market, promoted the expansion of bonds in green and private sectors, solidly carried out the "Five Major Articles" in finance, continuously promoted the opening - up of the bond market, strengthened credit risk management and control in the bond market, and improved the default disposal mechanism, further enhancing the marketization, legalization, and internationalization levels of China's bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1完善债券市场体制机制 - **规范债券发行业务**: In 2025, the Dealer Association issued a series of notices to regulate bond underwriting behavior, including prohibiting underwriters from distorting market prices and competing with below - cost quotes, and establishing self - disciplinary mechanisms. The exchange launched the pilot of corporate bond continuation issuance, which helps meet the investment and financing needs of market entities and enhance market liquidity. The Dealer Association optimized the bond financing mechanism for mature - layer enterprises, adjusting relevant indicators and requirements to improve enterprise financing convenience and efficiency [4]. - **完善信息披露制度**: In 2025, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges revised relevant rules and issued guidelines to expand the scope of specific situations to be concerned, strengthen information disclosure and verification requirements for issuers' solvency, and clarify the requirements for information disclosure and verification of honest practice, as well as the management requirements, responsibilities, and self - regulatory arrangements for information disclosure responsible persons, which helps standardize corporate bond information disclosure behavior [5]. - **发展债券指数化产品**: In 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of capital market index investment, including expanding bond ETFs, optimizing registration and issuance arrangements, and improving operation mechanisms. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges allowed bond ETFs to conduct general pledge - style repurchase transactions, which helps enrich the bond index product system and meet investors' diverse investment needs [7]. - **规范债券估值业务发展**: In 2025, the Dealer Association issued a self - regulatory guidance on bond valuation business, including requirements for the entire valuation production process, measures to improve transparency, a multi - level verification mechanism, and clear prohibitive behaviors, which helps standardize bond valuation management and improve valuation quality and transparency [8]. 3.2创新推出债市"科技板" In 2025, multiple departments issued a series of policies to support the high - quality development of science and technology innovation corporate bonds, including optimizing the issuance and registration process, providing credit enhancement support, exploring new bond products, and establishing a "Technology Board" in the bond market, which helps guide bond funds to be more efficiently, conveniently, and cost - effectively invested in the field of scientific and technological innovation and improve the service level of the bond market for scientific and technological innovation [9][10]. 3.3支持绿色等领域债券扩容 - **做好"绿色金融大文章"**: Multiple departments issued policies to support green bond investment and financing, including optimizing green bond standards, encouraging rating agencies to incorporate environmental information indicators, and supporting green enterprises' bond issuance. The Dealer Association optimized the issuance mechanism of green panda bonds, which helps promote the issuance and investment of green bonds and expand the green bond market [11][12]. - **支持民营企业债券融资**: The Dealer Association and relevant laws provided a series of measures to support private enterprise bond financing, including product innovation, improving the financing environment, and enhancing the service of bond financing support tools, which helps protect the legitimate rights and interests of private enterprises and expand their bond financing scale [13]. - **支持乡村振兴领域债券发行**: The People's Bank of China issued policies to encourage financial institutions to issue special financial bonds for "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" and support enterprises to issue rural revitalization bonds, which helps guide financial resources to the "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" field and expand the rural revitalization bond market [14]. - **支持体育领域债券发行**: The People's Bank of China and the State Council issued policies to support the issuance of financial bonds and corporate credit - type bonds in the sports field, which helps promote the development of the sports industry and expand the relevant bond market [15]. - **支持消费领域债券融资**: Multiple departments issued policies to support the issuance of bonds by enterprises in the service consumption field, encourage science and technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market, and support the issuance of financial bonds by relevant financial institutions, which helps promote the issuance of consumer - related bonds and expand the bond market [15]. - **支持林业领域债券发行**: The People's Bank of China issued a notice to encourage forest - related enterprises to issue bonds and support financial institutions to issue relevant financial bonds, which helps broaden the financing channels for forestry development and expand the relevant bond market [16]. - **支持制造业企业融资**: The People's Bank of China issued a policy to promote the growth of the number of manufacturing enterprises issuing bonds and their scale by 2027, support bond variety innovation, and apply green financial tools in the manufacturing industry's green and low - carbon transformation, which helps broaden the financing channels for manufacturing enterprises and expand the manufacturing - related bond market [16]. - **优化并购票据工作机制**: The Dealer Association issued a notice to optimize the working mechanism of merger and acquisition notes, including clarifying the definition and scope of application, strengthening fund use supervision, and innovating the information disclosure mechanism, which helps improve the issuance efficiency of merger and acquisition notes and expand their scale [17]. 3.4推进债券市场对外开放 - **优化债券通机制安排**: In 2025, the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced three optimization measures for opening up, including expanding the scope of participants in the South - bound Connect, optimizing the offshore RMB bond repurchase business, and optimizing the Swap Connect operation mechanism, which helps promote the opening - up of China's bond market [18]. - **支持境外投资者参与债券回购业务**: The People's Bank of China and relevant exchanges issued policies to expand the scope of overseas institutional investors participating in bond repurchase business, which helps improve the liquidity value and collateral function of RMB bonds and enhance their attractiveness to global institutions [19]. - **推进上海自贸区离岸债券发展**: The Shanghai Head Office of the People's Bank of China issued measures to optimize the issuance process, expand the issuer types, and encourage product innovation of Shanghai Free Trade Zone offshore bonds, which helps expand the offshore bond market and provide financing channels for Chinese enterprises and countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" [20]. 3.5推动评级行业高质量发展 - **支持评级行业创新发展**: The General Offices of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion to support the innovation and development of the credit rating industry, including innovating business models, regulating the behavior of credit service institutions, and promoting the internationalization of domestic credit rating agencies [21]. - **支持评级机构服务债市"科技板"**: The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as the Dealer Association, issued policies to encourage rating agencies to design special rating methods and models for science and technology innovation enterprises, which helps provide more accurate rating results for the "Technology Board" in the bond market and reduce information asymmetry [22]. 3.6加强债券市场风险管控 - **优化信用风险缓释工具管理机制**: The Dealer Association revised relevant rules and issued notices to optimize the management mechanism of credit risk mitigation tools, including simplifying the filing process, expanding the scope of underlying assets, and strengthening the rights and responsibilities of participants, which helps improve the operation mechanism of credit risk mitigation tools and the credit risk sharing system [23]. - **加强存续期管理**: The Dealer Association and the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued policies to strengthen the supervision of raised funds, standardize the handling of ongoing business, and strengthen the rules for entrusted management, which helps prevent the risk of misappropriation of raised funds, improve the efficiency of information disclosure and risk management, and promote the due performance of entrusted managers [25]. - **完善违约处置机制**: Exchanges and relevant departments issued policies to standardize debt - restructuring bond swaps, optimize bond buy - back business mechanisms, and improve the diversified dispute resolution mechanism, which helps standardize bond default disposal, enrich debt management tools, and improve the efficiency of default bond disposal [26][27].

Market Overview - The NPL product market continued to expand in 2025, with a total issuance scale of 820.57 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 61.32%[4] - The cumulative issuance scale of NPL products from 2016 to 2025 reached 3285.88 billion yuan, indicating a sustained growth trend over six consecutive years[4] Asset Securitization - In 2025, commercial banks disposed of a total of 519.11 billion yuan of non-performing loans (NPLs) through asset securitization, with principal accounting for 90.53% of this amount, marking a 62.80% increase from 2024[5] - As of September 2025, the balance of non-performing loans in commercial banks was 3522.48 billion yuan, with 349.45 billion yuan disposed of through securitization, accounting for 10.28% of the median balance of non-performing loans[7] Issuance Characteristics - Large state-owned commercial banks remained the main issuers in the NPL market, with the top three institutions (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China) accounting for 39.92% of the total issuance in 2025[9] - The types of NPL products issued have diversified, including personal housing mortgage NPLs and small micro-enterprise NPLs, reflecting a trend towards greater variety in product offerings[9] Recovery Rates and Valuation - The expected recovery rate for credit card NPL products ranged from 4.09% to 16.15%, with a weighted average recovery rate of 9.68%[22] - Personal housing mortgage NPL products had a higher expected recovery rate of 31.44% to 50.02%, with a weighted average recovery rate of 42.30%, although this represents a decline from 50.08% in 2024[31] Small Micro-Enterprise Loans - In 2025, 44 small micro-enterprise NPL products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 224.01 billion yuan, accounting for 27.03% of the total issuance[36] - The expected recovery rate for small micro-enterprise NPLs varied significantly, ranging from 11.58% to 57.20%, depending on the type of collateral involved[37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the issuance scale and number of supply chain asset - backed securitization products decreased, with the exchange as the main issuance venue. The single - issuance scale was highly concentrated, and the maturity was mainly within 1 year. The issuance interest rates and spreads of priority securities declined, and the exploration of collective supply chain asset - backed securitization products increased, with the repayment method remaining mainly one - time repayment at maturity. The market survival scale of such products decreased year by year [3][7][8][13][14][16][34][37]. - The top ten single core enterprises in terms of issuance amount of supply chain asset - backed securitization products had a high concentration, mainly state - owned enterprises. The single core enterprises in Beijing, Guangdong, and Shandong had a large proportion of issuance amount, and were mainly concentrated in industries such as industry, real estate, and finance [20][23][27][37]. - The new regulations on supply chain asset - backed securitization products in 2025 can better address market chaos and provide a framework for the standardized development of the industry. In the future, these products will still play an important role in serving the real economy in the ABS market [38][40][41]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 2025 Primary Market Operation 3.1.1 Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale and Number**: Affected by multiple factors, in 2025, the issuance scale of supply chain asset - backed securitization products was 148.758 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.09%, accounting for 6.40% of the total issuance scale of the whole - market asset - backed securitization products, a year - on - year decrease of 3.02 percentage points. The issuance number was 300, a year - on - year decrease of 14.04%, accounting for 12.32% of the total issuance number, a year - on - year decrease of 4.42 percentage points. Exchange issuance scale was 127.146 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.67%, with 245 issuances, a year - on - year decrease of 7.20%. Bank - inter - market issuance scale was 25.039 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 42.41%, with 55 issuances, a year - on - year decrease of 33.73% [3][4]. - **Single - Issuance Scale**: The single - issuance scale was highly concentrated. The product with the largest issuance scale was 3.286 billion yuan, and the smallest was 0.25 billion yuan. The number of products with a single - issuance scale in the (0, 5] billion yuan range was the largest, and the total issuance scale of products in the (5, 10] billion yuan range was the largest [7]. - **Maturity Structure**: The maturity of products issued in 2025 was mainly within 1 year. The issuance scale of products in each maturity decreased year - on - year, and the overall maturity structure remained relatively stable [8]. - **Product Mode and Repayment Method**: The exploration of "multi - core + guarantee + factoring" collective supply chain asset - backed securitization products increased. The repayment method was mainly one - time repayment at maturity, with no major change compared to 2024 [11][13]. 3.1.2 Interest Rate Analysis - The initial credit rating showed that the issuance scale of AAAsf products accounted for 86.22%, a year - on - year increase of 2.30 percentage points, and the issuance scale of AA + sf products accounted for 13.04%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.44 percentage points. Affected by monetary policy and liquidity, the issuance interest rates of supply chain asset - backed securitization products decreased and were more stable in 2025 compared to 2024. The issuance spreads of priority securities with different maturities and credit ratings narrowed. For example, the average issuance interest rate of priority securities (AAAsf, within 1 year) was 2.29%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.19 percentage points; the average issuance spread with 1 - year treasury bonds was 0.80%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the average issuance spread with 1 - year AAA corporate bonds was 0.34%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.03 percentage points [14][15][16]. 3.2 Analysis of Issuers of Supply Chain Asset - Backed Securitization Products 3.2.1 Issuing Core Enterprises - The concentration of the top ten single core enterprises in terms of issuance amount was high, mainly state - owned enterprises. The top three core enterprises in terms of issuance amount were Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd., JD Technology Group Co., Ltd., and Beijing JD Century Trading Co., Ltd., with issuance amounts of 21.48 billion yuan, 9 billion yuan, and 8.5 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 16.50%, 6.91%, and 6.53% of the total issuance amount. The total issuance amount of the top three single core enterprises accounted for 29.94%, and the top ten accounted for 52.24% [20]. - In terms of enterprise nature, 92 were state - owned enterprises, 7 were private enterprises, and 1 was other (foreign - funded enterprise), with corresponding issuance scales of 51.438 billion yuan, 57.222 billion yuan, and 8.5 billion yuan [22]. - In terms of regional distribution, the single core enterprises were distributed in 21 regions, with the top three regions being Guangdong, Beijing, and Shandong, with a total issuance amount of 79.171 billion yuan, accounting for 60.82% of the issuance amount of single core enterprises [23]. - In terms of industry distribution, the single core enterprises were mainly distributed in 8 industries, with industry, real estate, and finance leading in terms of issuance scale, accounting for 31.73%, 30.40%, and 15.54% of the issuance amount of single core enterprises respectively [27]. 3.2.2 Issuing Original Equity Holders The issuing original equity holders were relatively concentrated. The top ten original equity holders accounted for 72.32% of the issuance amount. The top five original equity holders were Shenghe (Shenzhen) Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Qianhai Lianyirong Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., Shanghai Banghui Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., Poly Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., and China Railway Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., accounting for 18.19%, 14.56%, 11.50%, 6.47%, and 5.07% of the total issuance amount respectively [30]. 3.2.3 Issuing Managers The issuing managers were concentrated. The top ten managers accounted for 57.97% of the issuance amount. The top five managers were Huatai Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd., CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., Ping An Securities Co., Ltd., Tianfeng (Shanghai) Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd., and Capital Securities Corporation Limited, with issuance amount ratios of 11.73%, 8.57%, 6.77%, 6.01%, and 5.61% respectively [31][33]. 3.3 Performance of Supply Chain Asset - Backed Securitization Products during the Survival Period - As of the end of 2025, the market survival scale of supply chain asset - backed securitization products was 144.633 billion yuan, accounting for 4.04% of the total balance of the ABS market. The number and scale of surviving products decreased year by year [34]. - In 2025, there were no projects involving rating adjustments for supply chain asset - backed securitization products [36]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Summary of Market Characteristics in 2025**: The issuance scale, number, and survival scale of supply chain asset - backed securitization products decreased. The issuance venue was mainly the exchange, the single - issuance scale was concentrated, the maturity was mainly within 1 year, the interest rates and spreads of priority securities decreased, the exploration of collective products increased, and the repayment method was mainly one - time repayment at maturity. The top ten single core enterprises in terms of issuance amount were highly concentrated and mainly state - owned enterprises [37]. - **New Regulations**: The "Notice on Regulating Supply Chain Financial Services and Guiding Supply Chain Information Service Institutions to Better Serve the Financing of Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises" issued in 2025 can address market chaos and provide a framework for the standardized development of the industry [40]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the issuance scale of supply chain asset - backed securitization products has decreased in recent years, aspects such as issuance venue selection, product term design, and credit enhancement arrangements have become more flexible. In the future, these products will still play an important role in the ABS market in serving the real economy [41].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer loan ABS market, highlighting significant growth and maintaining its position as a supply leader in the ABS market [4][46]. Core Insights - The consumer loan ABS market experienced a notable increase in issuance, with a total of 545 transactions amounting to 465.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.45% and 35.05% respectively [4][46]. - The market share of consumer loan ABS within the overall ABS market rose to 20.42%, an increase of 3.51 percentage points from the previous year, solidifying its dominant position [4][46]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing head effect among leading issuers, with trust companies and internet institutions being the primary contributors to the issuance volume [12][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Issuance Situation of Consumer Loan ABS - The consumer loan ABS market remains a core segment, with a total issuance of 465.08 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 35.05% increase year-on-year [4]. - The exchange market is the most active venue for consumer loan ABS, accounting for 49.98% of the total issuance, with a growth of 43.79% [8][12]. - Internet institutions are the main asset suppliers, contributing to 88.59% of the total issuance volume [14][15]. 2. Characteristics of Underlying Assets - The underlying assets of consumer loan ABS are characterized by small, dispersed loans with high yields and short remaining terms, with 82.54% of the issuance involving over 100,000 loans [28][30]. - The average remaining term for the asset pools is predominantly under one year, indicating a focus on short-term lending [30]. 3. Credit Ratings and Issuance Costs - The majority of issued consumer loan ABS are rated AAAsf, with 88.50% of the total issuance falling under this category [19]. - The average issuance rates for AAAsf rated securities have decreased, with 1-year and below rates at 1.89%, down 27 basis points from the previous year [19][23]. 4. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the growth rate of consumer loan ABS issuance may slow down in 2026 due to regulatory pressures aimed at reducing interest rates and enhancing risk control [46]. - Despite the expected slowdown, the overall market remains attractive due to favorable monetary policies and the quality of underlying assets [46][47].

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the annual growth target[10] - The quarterly GDP growth rate showed a decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.5% in Q4, primarily due to high base effects and policy timing[10] - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth was 2.6 percentage points, accounting for 52% of the total, an increase from 47% in 2024[11] Investment Trends - Total fixed asset investment was 48.52 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure and real estate investments declining significantly[20] - Manufacturing investment grew by only 0.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum[20] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2%, reflecting deeper issues in traditional infrastructure financing[21] Export and Trade - Total goods import and export volume reached 6.35 trillion USD, a 3.2% increase, with exports at 3.77 trillion USD, growing by 5.5%[27] - High-tech product exports rose by 13.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth[27] - ASEAN became the largest export market for China, with significant growth in exports to non-US markets[27] Price and Employment - CPI remained flat year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.6%, indicating low inflation and ongoing deflationary pressures[30][31] - The average urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, slightly below the target of 5.5%, with seasonal fluctuations observed throughout the year[42] Credit and Financing - Social financing increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%[45] - Government bond financing rose significantly, while household loans decreased by 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in financing dynamics[45]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the micro - loan ABS market maintained growth vitality. With policy driving, the ABN sub - market's popularity continued to rise, and multiple market players accelerated their layout. Facing the "asset shortage" pressure in the era of low - interest rates, the market was entering a new stage of actively embracing high - quality underlying assets. In the future, the micro - loan ABS market is expected to have growth space, with the co - existence of head - effect and diversification among asset providers, and the securities' low - interest environment will continue. Meanwhile, the asset credit quality will remain stable, and the risk - bearing capacity of outstanding securities will gradually increase, making it still worthy of allocation [2][46][47][48]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Micro - loan ABS Market Issuance Situation 3.1.1 ABN Market Continuously Drives Double - growth of Micro - loan ABS - In 2025, the overall number and scale of micro - loan ABS issuances increased slightly year - on - year, and the market share remained stable. The total issuance was 268 units, with a 7.20% year - on - year increase, and the issuance scale was 269.813 billion yuan, a 14.05% year - on - year increase. The proportion in the total issuance scale of asset - backed securities was 11.85%, basically the same as last year. The ABN market was strong with 125 units issued, totaling 108.23 billion yuan, a 60.26% and 40.80% year - on - year increase respectively, ranking first. The exchange - market issuance number decreased by 16.88% to 133 units, but the scale increased by 8.42% to 102.938 billion yuan. The credit ABS market continued to decline, with 10 units issued, a 16.67% year - on - year decrease, and the scale decreased by 9.46% to 58.645 billion yuan [4][5]. 3.1.2 Trust Companies and Commercial Banks Remain the Main Issuers - In 2025, there were 30 initiators/ original equity holders for micro - loan ABS, with trust companies and commercial banks as the main issuers. Trust companies issued 207 units, with a scale of 174.272 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% in both number and scale, an increase from last year. The top three trust companies in terms of issuance scale were China Foreign Economy and Trade Trust, Huaxin Trust, and Huaneng Trust, accounting for 17.34%, 13.45%, and 12.15% respectively. Commercial banks issued 10 units, accounting for 3.73% in number, but the scale was 58.645 billion yuan, accounting for 21.74%. The "Feichi Jianpu" series of China Construction Bank accounted for 18.39%. The average issuance scale of commercial banks' single project was 5.865 billion yuan, significantly higher than other institutions (818 million yuan) [7][9]. 3.1.3 The Head - effect of Asset Providers is Significant but the Rhythms are Differentiated, with More Participating Institutions and Diversified Asset Types - In 2025, there were 6 types of asset providers for micro - loan ABS. Private banks continued to be active, with an issuance scale of 110.2 billion yuan from 104 units, a 56.53 - percentage - point increase from last year, accounting for 40.84%. Internet platforms maintained a relatively small single - period scale and a fast issuance rhythm, with 79.05 billion yuan from 106 units, a 26.08 - percentage - point increase, accounting for 29.30%. Commercial banks kept a stable rhythm, with 58.645 billion yuan from 10 units, a 10.01 - percentage - point decrease, accounting for 21.74%. The issuance rhythm of financing guarantee companies slowed down, with 15.854 billion yuan from 28 units, a 48.91 - percentage - point decrease, accounting for 5.88%. Small - loan companies and property insurance companies also remained active. The head - effect was still significant, with different issuance rhythms among leading institutions like MYbank, Ping An Guarantee, and Meituan. In addition, many new issuers entered the market in 2025 [11][13][17]. 3.1.4 The Securities Issuance Cost Stabilizes after a Decline, with Obvious Interest - rate Differences in Different Markets - In 2025, the issuance rate of micro - loan ABS generally followed the trend of the ChinaBond Medium - and - Short - Term Note Yield, rising slightly at first, falling in the middle of the year, and stabilizing in the second half. The average issuance rates of AAAsf - level securities within 1.5 years in credit ABS, ABN, and exchange - ABS were 1.79%, 1.99%, and 2.04% respectively, with credit ABS having a significantly lower rate [19][23]. 3.1.5 The Securities Issuance Levels and Layers are Diversified to Meet Investors' Diverse Product - Structure Needs - In 2025, most micro - loan ABS products had multi - layer structures. The 268 units issued involved 943 securities, among which 661 had credit ratings, with a scale of 243.413 billion yuan, and the ratings ranged from BBBsf to AAAsf. AAAsf - level securities accounted for 95.22% in scale, with 354 units issued and a scale of 231.79 billion yuan. The diversification of the layered structure and credit ratings could balance risks and returns more flexibly and enhance the product's attractiveness to investors [25][27]. 3.1.6 The Average Balance per Loan, Term, and Yield of Pooled Assets Show Differentiation - In terms of the average balance per loan, the credit ABS market had a higher average balance as its asset providers were all commercial banks with high - quality customers or collateral - backed loans. The exchange - ABS and ABN products had more diverse asset providers with lower - end customers and smaller, more dispersed loans. The weighted average contract term of all markets was within 3 years. The ABN and exchange - ABS had higher weighted average yields as their asset providers were mainly internet platforms, private banks, and small - loan companies, while the credit ABS had a yield as low as 4.11% due to its commercial - bank asset providers [30][33]. 3.2 Micro - loan ABS Performance during the Outstanding Period 3.2.1 The Outstanding Scale of the Micro - loan ABS Market Grows Steadily - By the end of 2025, the outstanding scale of the micro - loan ABS market was 224.336 billion yuan, accounting for 6.27%, with a 10.24% year - on - year increase, showing a stable growth trend after a decline in 2024 [35]. 3.2.2 The Asset Default Rate of Micro - loan ABS Remains Low, and the Asset Credit Quality Remains Stable - As of the end of 2025, the 90 + cumulative default rate of outstanding micro - loan ABS products was between 0.00% and 1.72%, and most were below 1.50%, with an average of 0.94%, a 0.20% increase from the end of 2024. Generally, commercial banks had a lower default rate than internet platforms. Improvements in asset - pool quality and transaction structure usually led to credit - rating upgrades for micro - loan ABS products, and there were no downgrades in 2025 [36][38][42]. 3.2.3 There are Large Differences in the Recycling Purchase Multiples during the Outstanding Period - In 2025, 194 out of 268 issued micro - loan ABS projects had a recycling purchase structure, accounting for 72.39%, mainly in exchange - ABS and ABN products, with internet platforms and trust companies as the main initiators. The average recycling purchase multiple of the selected samples was 2.19, with 2.41 for products with internet - platform asset providers and 2.13 for those with commercial - bank asset providers. The multiples varied greatly due to differences in product settings and outstanding periods [43][44]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook 3.3.1 Driven by Policies and Market Vitality, the Micro - loan ABS is Expected to Have Growth Space in the Future - In 2025, the ABN market was the most active in micro - loan ABS issuance, with a 40.11% share and a 40.80% year - on - year increase in scale. The exchange market also remained active, with a 38.15% share and an 8.42% year - on - year increase. The credit ABS market continued to decline, but commercial - bank credit ABS had a large single - period scale. With the support of inclusive - finance policies, all issuance markets are expected to develop stably [46]. 3.3.2 The Co - existence of Head - effect and Diversification among Asset Providers, and the Low - interest Environment of Securities Issuance Continue - In 2025, the head - effect of asset providers was significant, but more institutions participated in the market, enriching the asset types. The market activity is expected to increase. The issuance rate of micro - loan ABS securities remained low in 2025, and the low - interest environment is expected to continue [47]. 3.3.3 The Asset Credit Quality Remains Stable, the Risk - bearing Capacity of Outstanding Securities Increases, and it Still has Allocation Value in the Future - Although the cumulative default rate of micro - loan ABS assets varies, it remains at a low level. As the remaining term of the underlying assets shortens, the asset - pool quality will improve, and the credit support for senior securities will increase. With multiple factors, the micro - loan ABS still has allocation value [48].

Political Landscape - The overwhelming victory of the Takashi Saimai political alliance in the House of Representatives reflects a significant rise in right-wing populism in Japan, with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) supporters expressing expectations for "strongman politics" [3] - The LDP secured 316 seats in the House of Representatives, achieving more than two-thirds of the legal seats for the first time since World War II, allowing the current government to push its economic and political policies without obstruction [4] Economic Policies - The Takashi Saimai government continues to view expansionary fiscal policy as the core means to boost domestic demand and economic recovery, despite facing severe challenges regarding interest payments and fiscal sustainability [9] - In November 2025, the Japanese cabinet approved a comprehensive economic strategy totaling approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about $112 billion), aimed at reducing living costs and increasing defense spending [9] Debt and Fiscal Concerns - Japan's fiscal deficit reached 17.8 trillion yen in 2025, increasing the deficit-to-GDP ratio by 0.4 percentage points to 2.9% [9] - By the end of 2025, Japan's total government debt rose to 1,466.7 trillion yen, representing about 235% of GDP, the highest debt pressure globally [9] Market Reactions - Following the election victory, concerns arose regarding the government's expansionary fiscal policies potentially exacerbating debt burdens, leading to a sell-off of Japanese government bonds [10] - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds surpassed 4% for the first time since 1995, while the 30-year bond yield reached a historical high of 3.85% [10] Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is expected to experience moderate recovery in 2025, with real GDP growth rebounding to 1.1%, but is projected to slow to around 0.6% in 2026 due to various pressures including tariffs and inflation [12][13] - The yen depreciated significantly following the election results, dropping to approximately 156.7 against the dollar, nearing the critical psychological level of 160 [13]

Economic Overview - By the end of January 2026, all 31 provinces in China had released their 2025 economic data, with GDP rankings remaining stable except for Chongqing surpassing Liaoning[4] - In 2025, the GDP growth rate for Tibet led the nation, while 18 provinces exceeded the national average growth rate of 5.0%, a decrease of 3 from 2024[4] Eastern Region - The eastern region accounted for over 50% of the national GDP, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong remaining the top three provinces; Shandong's GDP surpassed 10 trillion for the first time[5] - Guangdong's GDP represented over 10% of the national total, with a new economy value-added ratio of 26.7% and high-tech manufacturing accounting for 34.7% of industrial output[6] Central Region - The central region's total economic output reached 29.91 trillion, with Henan, Hubei, and Anhui leading in growth rates of 5.6%, 5.5%, and 5.5% respectively[10] - In 2025, Henan's strategic emerging industries accounted for over 25% of industrial value-added, significantly contributing to economic stability[10] Western Region - The western region saw most provinces exceed the national average growth rate, with Tibet's growth rate at the top and its GDP surpassing 300 billion for the first time[14] - Gansu's industrial output increased by 9.5%, driven by a 19.5% growth in the non-ferrous metal smelting industry, benefiting from new industry demands[14] Northeast Region - The Northeast region, led by Liaoning, faced significant challenges with a notable decline in economic growth, as it was surpassed by Chongqing in GDP ranking[15] - Liaoning's industrial output growth was only 0.6%, far below the national average of 5.9%, indicating difficulties in transitioning traditional industries[15]