浅析商业保理公司在资产证券化业 务中的作用及相关风险缓释措施 联合资信 结构评级三部 |陈开帆 |李敦远 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 引言 我国商业保理行业发展超过十年，行业监管逐步完善，商业保理机构作为供应链金融的重要 参与者，也常见于资产证券化产品之中。近期，笔者留意到，易见股份 4 月初披露了《行政处罚 决定书》，其中涉及易见股份通过下属保理公司开展虚假商业保理业务，此外个别保理公司失联、 转型、注销等报道也时有发生。 在商业保理公司参与的资产证券化产品中，其承担的角色主要包括哪些，因其履职能力下降 是否会影响到证券的正常兑付等是市场参与者较为关心的问题。本文主要介绍商业保理公司在不 同资产证券化交易结构中的作用，涉及的相关风险点及对应的缓释措施。 一、商业保理行业概况 商业保理公司主营业务是供应商（即债权人）将其基于真实交易的应收账款转让给商业保理 公司，由商业保理公司向其提供保理融资、销售分户（分类）账管理、应收账款催收、非商业性 坏账担保等服务。 我国商业保理行业发展超过十年，行业监管逐步完善，企业趋于高质量发展。 2012 年 6 月 27 日商务部发布的《关于商业保理试点 ...

2025 年以旧换新政策联合解读 20250109 摘要 Q&A 2024 年发改委和财政部发布的手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策具体内容是 什么？其对市场有何影响？ 2024 年 1 月 8 日，发改委和财政部发布了将手机、平板以及智能穿戴产品纳入 补贴范围的政策。根据该政策，补贴金额按售价的 15%计算，每人购买上限为一 部，单部产品售价上限为 6,000 元人民币。国内手机销量总盘约为 3.5 亿台，其 中售价超过 6,000 元的手机占比约 15%，因此 85%左右的手机都在补贴范围内。 • 2024 年，发改委和财政部推出手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策，补 贴金额达售价的 15%，最高 6,000 元/部，预计总补贴额在 500 亿至 1,000 亿元之间，刺激消费电子市场增长。 • 2024-2026 年，智能手机市场将进入 AI 大模型单侧运行阶段，AI 手机渗 透率持续提升，年复合增速可能超过 90%，利好相关供应链企业，尤其头 部安卓系及苹果系公司。 • 2025 年汽车以旧换新政策力度加大，范围更广，预计刺激效果强于 2024 年，乘用车报废更新量可能达 1,750 万辆，新能源汽车免征 ...

—探索城投公司住房收储业务 机遇与挑战并存 联合资信 公用评级四部 | 马玉丹 引言： 2024 年以来，"去库存"成为房地产行业的主线任务，相关政策接连出台，不断吸引市场目光。其 中，住房收储作为一种能同时实现房地产市场"去库存"与完善保障性住房体系建设的双重策略，再度 成为各界关注的热点话题。本轮住房收储行动呈现出政府主导、市场化运营、资金来源多元、注重效 益等特点，地方国企为主要实施主体。与此同时，随着市场化转型步入关键时期，城投公司面临着迫 切转型需求，即扩大经营性资产规模，拓宽市场化收入渠道，以优化其过度依赖政府的现金流结构， 并增强自身可持续发展能力。此时，住房收储相关政策的出台，可能为城投公司的市场化转型带来新 的契机。鉴于此，城投公司在深入住房收储业务时将面临哪些具体的条件制约，又有哪些可选择的运 作模式以供参考，本文将围绕上述核心议题进行阐述。 从信用分析角度来看，城投公司开展住房收储业务可能存在诸如资产流动性降低与价值波动风 险、债务规模扩大及期限错配风险、盈利能力弱化风险、资金回笼迟滞及短期偿付压力上升风险。重 点城市中，广州、宁波、无锡、济南、东莞、佛山、西安、南宁、郑州和乌鲁木齐等东 ...

机遇与挑战并存 —探索城投公司住房收储业务 联合资信 公用评级四部 | 马玉丹 引言： 2024 年以来，"去库存"成为房地产行业的主线任务，相关政策接连出台，不断吸引市场目光。其 中，住房收储作为一种能同时实现房地产市场"去库存"与完善保障性住房体系建设的双重策略，再度 成为各界关注的热点话题。本轮住房收储行动呈现出政府主导、市场化运营、资金来源多元、注重效 益等特点，地方国企为主要实施主体。与此同时，随着市场化转型步入关键时期，城投公司面临着迫 切转型需求，即扩大经营性资产规模，拓宽市场化收入渠道，以优化其过度依赖政府的现金流结构， 并增强自身可持续发展能力。此时，住房收储相关政策的出台，可能为城投公司的市场化转型带来新 的契机。鉴于此，城投公司在深入住房收储业务时将面临哪些具体的条件制约，又有哪些可选择的运 作模式以供参考，本文将围绕上述核心议题进行阐述。 从信用分析角度来看，城投公司开展住房收储业务可能存在诸如资产流动性降低与价值波动风 险、债务规模扩大及期限错配风险、盈利能力弱化风险、资金回笼迟滞及短期偿付压力上升风险。重 点城市中，广州、宁波、无锡、济南、东莞、佛山、西安、南宁、郑州和乌鲁木齐等东 ...

总量联合-进入窗口期 20240105 摘要 Q&A 在数据真空期内，哪些信息值得重点关注？ 数据真空期从元旦到两会前，经济数据不会公布，因此需要关注以下十大信息： 目前政策对于稳增长有哪些具体措施？房地产风险如何防范？ • 数据真空期需关注中央及地方政府工作会议、部委高规格会议，解读政策 方向及经济增长目标。地方政府对"开门红"的重视程度也值得关注。 • 财政金融方面，需重点关注专项债、超长期特别国债及政府贷的发行节奏， 以及准财政政策性银行与地方国有企业的负债情况，这些直接影响财政支 出及经济企稳。 • 需求端需关注消费政策的接续及扩围、投资规划（尤其公路投资及重大项 目）、地产政策（收储及城中村改造）的具体目标，这些将影响经济增长 的关键驱动力。 • 市场成交量回落至 1.4 万亿元，两融资金流出，反映投资者对经济复苏预 期偏弱，更倾向于债券而非股票。 • 政府在价格低位时展现出强烈的稳增长决心，政策空间充足，但需防范房 地产风险，尤其关注 4 月份美元债和国内债务集中到期的情况。 • 评估市场底部的方法包括：历史回撤幅度、重要资金安全垫、成交额回落。 未来货币政策或将择机降准降息，以缓解通胀处于低位的 ...

本次会议是面向方证证券的专业投资机构客户或收邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议根据监管规定会议不得交流敏感内幕信息未经方证证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人连接录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 各位投资者朋友晚上好欢迎参加方证研究所一月禁股电话会议我是方证策略首席分析师齐佳琦首先容我简要的介绍一下方证策略团队的新主要观点第一呢我们认为12月美联储放映呢不必过分惊慌美股美国股市和经济出现的复盘会将促使美联储整个一方面呢美联储围绕着股市去做预期管理市场上多上涨比较多的之后呢我们都能够看到 他会通过一些鹰派的发言打压乐观预期这是一个正常的操作同时目前美股已经出现了疲弱的信号我们预计美联储有可能在短期之内大概率去转戈另外一方面的历史经验也显示暂停降息的前提是经济保持韧性但是特朗普潜在的加征关税 削除移民包括削减投资等等都可能会导致美国经济不韧性不足同时迫使美联储降息 呃我们近期也观察到A股的风格呢从小盘成长阶段性切到了大盘红利上但是我们说主要的驱动因素可能都局限于短期啊美加利率雷池高位刚刚也提到了但是之后呢大概率会回落第 ...

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Resources Connection, Inc. conference call. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this line call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to remind everyone that management will be commenting on results for the second quarter ended November 23, 2024. They will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. An explan ...

【行业研究】建筑施工行业研究报告 联合资信 2025 年 01 月 02 日 摘要 建筑业作为国民经济的支柱产业之一，行业周期性明显。受房地产投资持续 低迷影响，2024 年前三季度建筑业增速有所回落。 从需求端看，2024 年以来，房地产市场开发投资、销售和施工增速仍为负， 虽然国家持续出台刺激政策，但仍需关注相关政策未来发力强度和落地执行情况； 同期，基础设施建设增速同比小幅回升，总体保持相对平稳的增长态势。 2024 年前三季度，建筑施工企业经营活动和投资活动产生现金流量净额缺 口有所扩大，行业流动性压力加大；整体杠杆水平持续提升，中央企业和地方国 有企业杠杆水平有所企稳，民营企业杠杆水平有所下降；民营企业流动性紧缩趋 势愈发明显，需持续关注偿债指标明显弱化、资金链压力较为突出的尾部企业。 随着国家实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，建工行业流动性压力 或将有所缓解。 2024 年前三季度，中央国有企业发债主体数量及发债规模明显领先于其他 所有制企业且优势有所扩大，民营企业无债券发行，信用等级对信用利差表现出 较强的区分度。 联合资信认为，随着国家实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 房 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit rating outlook for the securities industry, with some companies experiencing upgrades in their credit ratings [4][15][16]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "New National Nine Articles" and the gradual implementation of the capital market "1+N" policy framework have significantly boosted market confidence, laying a foundation for the long-term stable development of the industry [2][5]. - In 2024, the capital replenishment of securities companies is expected to slow down due to market and regulatory policy influences, while M&A activities are anticipated to accelerate under policy incentives [3][33]. - The central economic work conference indicated that more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies will be implemented by 2025, which will help stabilize expectations across various industries and restore confidence [3][5]. Industry Credit Risk Review - The securities industry has seen a significant increase in regulatory penalties, with 399 penalties issued in 2024, marking a substantial rise compared to previous years [12][27]. - Despite the high frequency of penalties, no major risk events have impacted the credit ratings of securities companies [18][51]. Industry Policy Overview - The "New National Nine Articles" was released in April 2024, marking a significant policy shift aimed at enhancing the quality of listed companies and strengthening regulatory oversight [21][23]. - Various supporting regulations have been introduced to improve the overall regulatory framework, including stricter controls on IPO approvals and enhanced supervision of listed companies [21][23]. Securities Company Capital Replenishment - The capital replenishment of securities companies has been notably affected by the market and regulatory environment, with a slowdown in new capital raising activities [30][31]. - As of October 2024, several securities companies have received significant capital injections from shareholders, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen their financial positions [31]. M&A Activities in the Securities Industry - The report highlights a notable acceleration in M&A activities among securities companies in 2024, driven by favorable policy conditions [33][61]. - Several significant mergers have occurred, including major players consolidating to enhance their market positions [33][61]. Bond Issuance by Securities Companies - In the first nine months of 2024, securities companies issued a total of 403 debt financing instruments, with a total fundraising amount of 692.63 billion yuan, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [61][62]. - However, a surge in bond issuance was observed in the fourth quarter, with expectations for an overall increase in bond issuance in 2025 [36][61]. Industry Revenue Structure and Concentration - The report notes a 9.44% decline in revenue for securities companies in the first half of 2024, primarily due to reduced trading activity and a slowdown in IPO processes [67]. - The concentration of revenue remains high, with the top ten securities companies accounting for a significant portion of the industry's total revenue and profits [43][67].

Consumer Finance Market Overview - The consumer finance market in China is driven by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including measures to promote service consumption, upgrade consumption scenarios, and encourage the replacement of old goods such as cars and home appliances [3] - In 2024 H1, consumption contributed 60.5% to real GDP growth, down 22.0 and 13.2 percentage points from 2023 and 2024 Q1 respectively [3] - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 35.36 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, showing a slowdown in consumption recovery momentum [3] - As of September 2024, the balance of RMB loans was 235.61 billion yuan, with consumer loans (excluding housing loans) growing by 3.34% year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand due to declining income expectations and consumption downgrading [3] Competitive Landscape - The consumer finance market is dominated by traditional commercial banks, with internet finance platforms, private banks, consumer finance companies, and microfinance companies playing supporting roles [4] - Commercial banks hold a 42% share of the consumer loan market (excluding housing loans), while internet finance platforms account for nearly 20% [5] - Licensed consumer finance companies, though currently contributing only around 5% of the market, are expected to grow and become a major player alongside commercial banks [5] - The market share of microfinance companies is shrinking, with loan balances decreasing by 147.8 billion yuan in 2023 [5] Consumer Finance Companies - As of 2024, there are 31 licensed consumer finance companies in China, with 22 backed by commercial banks and 9 by industrial institutions and e-commerce platforms [17] - Consumer finance companies primarily offer small, short-term loans, with loan durations trending shorter in 2023 [19] - The industry's average non-performing loan (NPL) rate was 2.14% at the end of 2023, with a provision coverage ratio of 279.20%, indicating stable asset quality [79] - In 2024, NPL rates have shown signs of rising, with some companies experiencing profit declines due to increased provisioning and risk management pressures [80] Financing and Profitability - Consumer finance companies rely heavily on interbank borrowing, but the issuance of financial bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) is increasing, diversifying funding sources [22][27] - In 2023, the total financing balance of consumer finance companies grew by 39.50%, with ABS issuance increasing by 79.07% [26][28] - The average financing cost for consumer finance companies decreased to 3.62% in 2023, with bank-affiliated companies enjoying lower costs due to parental support [30] - In 2024, profitability pressures have increased, with some companies reporting declining profits due to lower interest rates and rising credit costs [31][38] Regulatory and Market Trends - The "Consumer Finance Company Management Measures" introduced in 2024 raised the minimum registered capital requirement to 1 billion yuan and increased the shareholding ratio for major investors to 50%, tightening entry barriers [56][57] - The new regulations also limit the balance of guarantee business to no more than 50% of total loan balances, pushing companies to enhance independent risk management capabilities [57] - The industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more stable, competitive phase, with medium-sized companies showing better growth performance than larger players [47][49] - Asset quality remains under pressure, with rising NPL rates and increased bad loan transfers, reflecting challenges in managing credit risk [50][73]