Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable development outlook for the engineering machinery industry, expecting recovery and growth by 2025 [1][51]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry in China is currently in a bottoming adjustment phase, with a significant reduction in the rate of decline observed in 2024 [3][48]. - Sales of excavators continue to decline, while loader sales have shown a year-on-year increase [3]. - The export value of engineering machinery products remains positive but is experiencing a slowdown in growth, particularly in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][49]. - The industry is accelerating its transformation towards digitalization, intelligence, and green development, supported by national policies and major engineering projects [1][51]. Industry Status - In the first three quarters of 2024, excavator sales totaled 147,381 units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.96%, while loader sales reached 81,798 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.73% [3]. - Domestic excavator sales increased by 8.62%, while export sales decreased by 9.04% [3]. - The overall fixed asset investment in the country has seen a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is affected by the prices of raw materials such as steel, which accounts for approximately 30% of the production cost of engineering machinery [4]. - Steel prices have shown a trend of "fluctuating decline" in 2024, impacting production costs and profitability [4]. - The demand side is primarily driven by real estate development and infrastructure construction, with real estate investment down by 10.1% year-on-year [8][9]. Policy Environment - The government has implemented various policies to support the engineering machinery industry, including large-scale equipment updates and special bonds for infrastructure projects [11][12]. - The focus on green development is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector [11][12]. Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, sample companies in the engineering machinery sector reported a total revenue of 199.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, while total profits rose by 16.47% to 17.71 billion yuan [17]. - The average net asset return rate for sample companies improved to 6.04%, indicating enhanced profitability [17]. Credit Market Overview - The issuance of credit bonds by engineering machinery companies decreased in 2024 compared to the previous year, with a total issuance of 12.819 billion yuan [33]. - No defaults or downgrades were reported among the sample companies in the engineering machinery sector during this period [40].

Industry Overview - The asset size of the local AMC industry continued to expand by the end of 2023 and June 2024, but the growth rate slowed down significantly, with a 1.78% increase in assets by June 2024 [4] - The industry's leverage level continued to decline, although some sample companies still maintained high leverage ratios [1] - Profitability in the industry showed a noticeable decline in the first half of 2024, with significant regional differentiation in profitability among local AMCs [1] Asset Size and Distribution - By June 2024, the total assets of sample companies were mainly below 300 billion yuan, with only 8 companies exceeding 300 billion yuan and 4 companies surpassing 500 billion yuan [4] - Shandong Jinzi (1276.37 billion yuan), Zhongyuan Asset (715.30 billion yuan), Zhejiang Asset (675.82 billion yuan), and Shaanxi Jinzi (615.03 billion yuan) were the top four companies in terms of asset size, with Shandong Jinzi being the only local AMC with assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan [4] - From 2023 to June 2024, 6 companies saw asset growth exceeding 10%, while 4 companies experienced asset declines exceeding 5% [6][7] Capital Strength - The industry's net assets continued to grow steadily, with a 3.97% increase by June 2024 [8] - Shandong Jinzi, Shaanxi Jinzi, Zhejiang Asset, and Zhongyuan Asset were the top four companies in terms of net assets, with Shandong Jinzi leading at 689.02 billion yuan [11] - Capital replenishment activities were frequent in 2023, with Shandong Jinzi, Jiangsu Asset, and Henan Asset being notable examples of companies that increased their capital significantly [12] Leverage Levels - The industry's average leverage ratio continued to decline, with most sample companies maintaining a debt-to-asset ratio between 60% and 80% [15] - Shandong Jinzi and Zhejiang Asset were among the few companies that consistently reduced their leverage ratios, with Shandong Jinzi's ratio dropping to 46.02% by June 2024 [17] - Companies like Xingye Asset and China Merchants Ping An Asset had high leverage ratios of 80.90% and 82.40%, respectively, indicating potential liquidity risks [15][18] Profitability - The industry's total profit increased slightly in 2023 but declined significantly in the first half of 2024, with a 28.60% drop in total profit and a 25.73% drop in net profit [28] - Companies like Huarun Yukang Asset, Xingye Asset, Yunnan Asset, and Zhongyuan Asset saw profit growth exceeding 30% in 2023, while Guangzhou Asset, Everbright Jinou Asset, and Hunan Caixin Asset experienced profit declines exceeding 20% [32][33] - By June 2024, 5 companies, including Guizhou Asset and China Merchants Ping An Asset, reported losses, with China Merchants Ping An Asset showing significant volatility in profitability [33] Regional and Operational Differentiation - Local AMCs in economically developed regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian generally maintained higher profitability, while those in less developed regions like Inner Mongolia and Guizhou showed weaker performance [37] - Shenzhen Asset achieved stable profitability with an annualized ROE exceeding 8% from 2021 to June 2024, while Guangzhou Asset and China Merchants Ping An Asset in Guangdong Province faced significant profit declines [39] - Inner Mongolia Jinzi developed unique business models, such as government debt restructuring and policy-based businesses, to supplement traditional non-performing asset operations [40] State-Owned vs. Private AMCs - Private local AMCs faced increasing operational difficulties, with companies like Hubei Tianqian Asset and Guohou Asset experiencing significant losses and liquidity pressures [42] - State-owned local AMCs received stronger government support, leading to a widening performance gap between state-owned and private AMCs [44] - Several private AMCs, including Hubei Tianqian Asset and Guohou Asset, were listed as被执行人或 faced legal restrictions, reflecting the challenges in the private sector [42]

CVC Definition and Characteristics - CVC refers to corporate venture capital, which involves direct investment in external startups by non-financial enterprises, excluding internal investments or third-party investments [4] - CVC differs from IVC in terms of investment objectives, funding sources, and organizational forms, with CVC focusing more on strategic goals and industry relevance [5][6] Development History of CVC in China - CVC in China started late but has grown significantly, with over 8,000 industrial groups participating and cumulative investments reaching 2.75 trillion RMB by 2024 [2] - The development of CVC in China can be divided into four stages: germination (1998-2008), initial development (2009-2014), rapid growth (2015-2019), and adjustment (2020-present) [10][11][14][15] Current Status of CVC in China - As of 2024, CVC investments in China are concentrated in high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors, with IT, biotech/healthcare, and semiconductors being the top industries [24][25] - Internet companies like BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) are major players, accounting for nearly 10% of total CVC investment cases [21][22] Economic and Policy Environment - Recent policies in China have encouraged CVC participation in the equity investment market, focusing on stabilizing industrial and supply chains [26][28] - Local governments, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, have introduced measures to support CVC development, including preferential policies for CVC funds [32][33] Investment Models of CVC - CVC investment models include direct equity investments and indirect investments through funds, with many CVC institutions adopting a dual approach [34][35][39] - Examples include China Three Gorges Corporation's direct investments in green energy and its indirect investments through funds like the Jiangxia Clean Energy Fund [36][41] Future Trends of CVC - CVC's role in the equity investment market is expected to grow, with more industrial groups participating and investments becoming more specialized and market-oriented [44][45] - The trend of CVC becoming more VC-like is evident, with established CVC institutions like Lenovo Capital and Huawei's Hubble Investment achieving significant success [45]

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 下行何时结束，水泥行业路在何方 －－水泥行业周期性研究 联合资信 工商评级 |刘珺轩 |宋莹莹 自 1992 年以来水泥行业共经历了 1992－1998 年、1999－2005 年、2006 －2015 年及 2016 年至今这四个周期。水泥行业需求端和主要燃料端均呈现 较强周期性，水泥行业供给端呈现被动周期性，且随水泥行业逐步进入成 熟发展阶段，水泥行业周期性特征更加显著。在水泥行业最近两轮周期中， 样本水泥企业熟料产能整体呈现增长趋势，从财务表现看，盈利指标呈现 较为明显的周期性变化，部分运营效率指标和负债率指标具有一定的周期 性变化。 本轮下行周期的结束依靠行业供需关系改善，短期需求端难以恢复，改 善供需失衡状态需依赖供给端发力；预计政策端将持续实施错峰停产、减 量置换和加大环保措施力度等措施加快水泥熟料产能的去除，同时在多重 压力下，部分水泥产能将被动出清。故本轮行业下行期中，产能规模大、运 营效率高、资源禀赋强、债务负担轻、多元化发展及股东实力强的水泥企业 将穿越周期。 一、 中国水泥行业发展阶段总览 从市场容量变化情况来看，中国水泥行业尚未经历完整 ...

Industry Overview - The tourism industry transitioned from rapid recovery to stable development in the first three quarters of 2024, with domestic tourism showing growth in both the number of trips and total spending, while outbound and inbound tourism are still in the recovery phase [3] - Domestic tourism trips reached 4.237 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, recovering to 92.2% of the 2019 level, with urban residents accounting for 3.270 billion trips (up 14.9%) and rural residents for 967 million trips (up 16.8%) [3] - Domestic tourism revenue reached 4.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, exceeding the 2019 level, with urban residents contributing 3.71 trillion yuan (up 17.1%) and rural residents contributing 640 billion yuan (up 22.5%) [3] - During the 2024 National Day holiday, domestic tourism trips reached 765 million, a 5.9% increase year-on-year and 10.2% higher than 2019, with total spending reaching 700.817 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year and 7.9% higher than 2019 [4] Outbound and Inbound Tourism - In the first three quarters of 2024, the number of inbound and outbound trips reached 447 million, a 5.42% increase compared to 2023 [7] - Policies such as online processing of entry-exit documents and visa-free trials for countries like South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand have been implemented to stimulate demand, but recovery is still affected by visa policies, international flight availability, and pricing [7] Sub-Sectors Analysis Scenic Spots - In the first three quarters of 2024, the profitability and operating cash flow of most scenic spots underperformed expectations, with a 16.06% decline in total profits for 13 listed scenic spot companies compared to the same period in 2023 [11] - Operating cash flow for these companies decreased by 27.00% year-on-year, mainly due to increased cash outflows for operations and taxes [11] Hotels and Catering - In the first half of 2024, the hotel industry faced intensified competition, with revenue, average room rates, and occupancy rates declining slightly year-on-year [15] - Star-rated hotels saw a 2.80% year-on-year decline in revenue, with average room rates and occupancy rates fluctuating across different quarters [15][18] Travel Agencies - In the first half of 2024, domestic tourism organized by travel agencies grew by 17.85% year-on-year, recovering to 88.57% of the 2019 level, while outbound and inbound tourism remained at 19.10% of the 2019 level [29] - The number of travel agencies increased by 24.61% in 2023, with total revenue reaching 444.273 billion yuan, a 177.40% year-on-year increase [26] Duty-Free Shopping - In the first three quarters of 2024, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales declined by 31.1% year-on-year to 24.01 billion yuan, with the number of shoppers and items purchased also decreasing [32] - China Duty Free Group dominates the domestic duty-free market, holding approximately 80% of the market share [33] Industry Policies - Since 2023, the government has introduced multiple policies to support the recovery and high-quality development of the tourism industry, focusing on increasing product supply, optimizing infrastructure, improving the consumption environment, and expanding financing channels [36][37] Bond Issuance and Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, tourism bond issuers raised 52.867 billion yuan, with a net financing inflow of 14.693 billion yuan, and the total outstanding bonds reached 126.479 billion yuan [41] - The overall profitability of tourism bond issuers declined, with total revenue decreasing by 7.17% year-on-year and total profits dropping by 2.31% [43][45] Outlook - The tourism industry is expected to maintain stable growth, driven by increasing demand, comprehensive recovery across various sectors, and supportive government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and promoting sustainable development [52]

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 需求加速恢复，偿债指标有望继续改善 ——机场行业回顾及展望 联合资信 公用评级三部 |杨婷|张晨 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co.,Ltd. 一、行业概况 2024 年 1－9 月，民航业国内需求常态化增长、国际需求加速恢复，机场主要 运营指标均超过 2019 年同期水平；东北地区和西部地区旅客恢复率、中部地区货 物恢复率远超行业平均水平。 受益于出入境限制放开、休闲旅游和商务出行需求提升，2023 年，我国机场 客货吞吐量快速恢复，旅客吞吐量恢复至 2019 年的 93.2%，货邮吞吐量恢复至 2019 年的 98.4%；进入 2024 年，国内航空出行需求常态化增长、国际航线加速修复综 合作用下，2024 年前三季度，机场行业综合运营指标同比均较快增长。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------|----------------- ...

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 行业发展稳中向好，经营业绩持续改善 ——航空运输行业回顾及展望 联合资信 公用评级 |彭雪绒 |王相尹 一、 行业运行分析 2024 年以来，航空客货运市场需求旺盛，国内航线对客运市场形成支撑，国际 客运延续较快恢复态势，货运市场仍以国际航线为主。航空运输行业整体发展平稳。 根据《中国民航 2024 年 9 月份主要生产指标统计》，2024 年 1－9 月，中国民航 业累计完成运输总周转量1106.6亿吨公里，同比增长27.4%，为2019年同期的114.59%。 其中，第三季度民航客货运输周转量均创 2019 年来季度新高。 客运市场方面，航空客运需求保持旺盛，2024 年 1－9 月全行业完成旅客周转量 9743.9 亿人公里，同比增长 27.5%。其中，国内航线完成旅客周转量 7762.8 亿人公里 （占 79.67%），同比增长 13.3%；国际航线完成旅客周转量 1981.1 亿人公里（占 20.33%），同比增长 151.9%，接近 2019 年同期水平。2024 年 1－9 月全行业完成旅 客运输量 5.52 亿人次，同比增长 19.1%。 货运 ...

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2024 年三季度证券行业分析 联合资信 金融评级 |张晓嫘 |潘岳辰 一、证券行业概况 2023 年，股票市场指数震荡下行，交投活跃程度同比下降，期末两融余额较上 年末有所增长，全年股权融资进度同比明显放缓；债券市场发行增势不减，收益率震 荡下行，期末债券市场指数较年初小幅上涨。2024 年前三季度，股票市场指数大幅 波动，交投活跃程度同比有所下降，但受益于 9 月下旬行业利好政策的颁布，三季度 末股票指数快速上涨，单日股票交易成交额显著增长；市场存量债券余额较上年末有 所增长，期末债券市场指数较上年末小幅上涨。 股票市场方面，2023 年，股票市场指数震荡下行，交投活跃程度同比略有下降。 截至 2023 年末，上证指数收于 2974.93 点，较年初下跌 3.70%；深圳成指收于 9524.69 点，较年初下跌 13.54%。根据交易所公布数据，截至 2023 年末，我国上市公司总数 5346 家，较年初增加 267 家；上市公司总市值 77.76 万亿元，较年初下降 1.58%。根 据 Wind 统计数据，2023 年全部 A 股成交额 212.10 万 ...

一般金融机构行业运行状况及 3C 级别表现 一、行业运行概况 一般金融机构涵盖金融租赁、汽车金融、消费金融、财务公司等非银机构，基于样本量原因，本文一 般金融机构 3C 模型的细分行业包括金融租赁、汽车金融和消费金融。 监管政策层面，一般金融机构多项政策的出台对公司治理、业务发展及风险控制等方面的要求进一步 细化，旨在引导一般金融机构回归主业以及规范化、标准化经营，促进一般金融机构长期化健康发展，提 升服务实体经济及消费者质效；但同时，监管政策的加强或将使部分机构面临较大业务转型压力。 国家金融监督管理总局修订发布的《汽车金融公司管理办法》已于 2023 年 8 月 11 日起施行，主要修 订内容体现在风险管理、业务范围、公司治理及内部控制、境外业务等方面，旨在引导汽车金融公司聚焦 主业，以适应汽车行业高质量发展的市场需求，同时强化股东的支持力度以及股权监管。上述《汽车金融 公司管理办法》的贯彻落实将有利于汽车金融公司提高风险防控意识，提升公司治理及和内部控制规范性 及信息披露透明度，推动汽车金融公司发挥自身专营汽车消费信贷的专业优势，做精专业、强化服务，提 高服务实体经济的效率和水平。 2024 年 3 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the optional consumption industry in 2025, with head enterprises expected to consolidate their credit levels due to competitive advantages [1][46]. Core Insights - In 2024, policy stimuli are expected to significantly boost demand for optional consumer goods, although macroeconomic changes may lead to increased uncertainty in personal income and more cautious consumer spending decisions [1][46]. - The textile manufacturing sector is showing positive trends, while brand apparel is experiencing structural differentiation. The real estate policies are anticipated to release demand for home appliances, and the consumer electronics sector is slowly recovering, with AI and core components being the main investment focus [1][46]. - The overall development of the optional consumption industry is projected to remain stable in 2025, supported by effective consumption promotion policies [1][46]. Industry Overview - The optional consumption products include housing, automobiles, furniture, home appliances, mid-to-high-end apparel, electronic products, and cultural tourism products. The consumption frequency of optional goods is lower than that of essential goods, and they are closely related to macroeconomic conditions [4][1]. - In 2024, the global economic growth is slowing, and personal income faces more uncertainties, leading to cautious public consumption decisions. The average disposable income per capita in China for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30,941 yuan, a real growth of 4.9% year-on-year [3][1]. Subsector Analysis Textile and Apparel Industry - In the first three quarters of 2024, retail sales of clothing and textile products in China showed weak performance, with a retail growth of only 0.2% year-on-year. The textile manufacturing sector, however, is experiencing a recovery in orders and profitability [5][6]. - The export of textile products from China accounted for approximately 30% of global exports, but the focus is shifting towards Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam [5][6]. Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance market in China is becoming saturated, with retail sales growth of only 7.8% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2024. The demand for new appliances is closely tied to the real estate market, which is currently facing a downturn [12][13]. - Domestic home appliance companies are increasingly looking to overseas markets for growth, facing challenges such as trade sanctions and delivery risks [14][12]. Consumer Electronics Industry - The consumer electronics market is showing signs of moderate recovery, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 7.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024. The introduction of AI-enabled products is expected to drive further growth [15][19]. - Companies in the consumer electronics sector are under pressure to invest heavily in AI and core components to maintain competitiveness [46][19]. Policy Analysis - In 2024, the government has implemented various consumption promotion policies, including trade-in programs and subsidies for purchasing new appliances, which are expected to positively impact the optional consumption industry [24][25]. - The government is also focusing on creating new consumption scenarios to stimulate growth across various sectors, including home appliances and electronics [26][25]. Credit Status of Industry Enterprises - As of the first nine months of 2024, there were instances of credit downgrades among enterprises in the optional consumption sector, with one company defaulting on two bonds [29][36]. - The total amount of outstanding bonds in the optional consumption sector is approximately 155.99 billion yuan, with a significant portion maturing between 2025 and 2027, indicating potential repayment pressures [32][36]. Industry Outlook - The optional consumption industry is expected to maintain stability in 2025, with leading enterprises leveraging their competitive advantages to solidify credit levels. The overall industry is projected to develop steadily [46][41].