Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit risk level for the insurance industry, with an overall investment rating reflecting a controlled credit risk environment [8][67]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to maintain a stable credit level in the near future, supported by regulatory guidance aimed at enhancing corporate governance, reducing liability costs, and improving risk management capabilities [8][67]. - The personal insurance sector is projected to see a continuous increase in premium income due to the ongoing adjustment of preset interest rates and the implementation of new regulations [8][66]. - Property insurance companies are anticipated to improve profitability as they gain more pricing autonomy, with non-auto insurance business contributing significantly to growth [5][67]. - The introduction of new accounting standards is expected to enhance financial transparency and comparability, facilitating high-quality development within the insurance sector [8][67]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The insurance industry has experienced a growth in solvency adequacy ratio, with the average comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio reaching 197.4% and the average core solvency adequacy ratio at 135.1% as of September 2024 [44][46]. - The personal insurance sector has seen a significant increase in premium income, driven primarily by life insurance, while health insurance and universal insurance have faced challenges due to regulatory changes [19][49]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework emphasizes "strong regulation, risk prevention, and promoting high-quality development," which is expected to guide the industry towards improved governance and risk management [8][66]. - Recent policies have adjusted the pricing mechanisms for personal insurance products, linking preset interest rates to market rates, thereby alleviating cost pressures on liability management [13][66]. Financial Performance - The overall profitability of the insurance sector has improved, with net profits for personal insurance companies reaching 2846.74 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [62][70]. - The property insurance sector has also shown growth in net profits, with a reported increase of 15.48% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [62][63]. Investment Trends - The investment asset structure remains stable, with fixed-income assets being the primary allocation. However, the low-interest-rate environment continues to pose challenges for asset allocation [40][57]. - The comprehensive investment return rate has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase noted in the first three quarters of 2024 [61][70].

1 国际 IFRS9 为 2014 年国际会计准则理事会（IASB）发布的《国际财务报告准则第 9 号——金融工具》，我国财政部 于 2017 年 4 月修订发布《企业会计准则第 22 号—金融工具确认和计量》、《企业会计准则第 23 号—金融资产转移》和《企 业会计准则第 24 号—套期会计》、《企业会计准则第号—金融工具列报》四项准则，内容趋同于国际 IFRS9，为表述方便， 上述准则我们统称为 IFRS9 2 国际 IFRS17 为 2017 年国际会计准则理事会（IASB）发布的《国际财务报告准则第 17 号——保险合同》，2020 年我 国财政部发布了《企业会计准则第 25 号—保险合同》，主要内容与国际 IFRS17 准则基本无差异，为表述方便，上述准则我 们统称为 IFRS17 3 新准则指 IFRS9 与 IFRS17 专题三：新准则同步实施对险企影响几何 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

银行业季度观察报(2024 年第 2 期) ) 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd. 作者：金融评级一部 盛世杰 张朝宇 周雅琦 汪耔成 张哲铭 2. 2024 年前三季度，商业银行不良贷款率较上年末略有下降，关注类贷款占比 小幅提升，信贷资产质量基本保持稳定，但考虑到当前宏观经济复苏迟缓对 企业经营带来一定的不确定性，同时《商业银行金融资产风险分类办法》的 实施对商业银行风险管理提出更高的要求，仍需关注未来商业银行资产质量 的变化情况。 1. 未来，中国人民银行将强化逆周期调节，推进稳健的货币政策灵活适度，为 经济回升向好营造了良好的货币金融环境。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2024 年前三季度，我国银行业保持平稳发展态势，信贷资产质量较为稳定， 拨备和资本保持在充足水平，但净息差进一步收窄，低息差背景下商业银行 盈利能力仍面临一定挑战。展望未来，人民银行将强化逆周期调节，持续推 进稳健的货币政策灵活适度，为经济回升向好营造了良好的货币金融环境， 预计银行体系流动性水平将保持合理充裕。在当前宏观环境背景下，需关注 商业银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak growth outlook for the construction industry, with a focus on the need for stabilization policies in the real estate market [1][3][40]. Core Insights - The construction industry in China experienced a slowdown in output growth during the first three quarters of 2024, with new contract amounts declining at the lowest rate since 2021, indicating a lack of growth momentum [1][3][75]. - The total contract amount in hand reached approximately 610,427 billion yuan by the end of September 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.81%, which is the lowest since 2008 [5][70]. - The report highlights that the central government's policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have played a significant role in preventing further declines [40][35]. Industry Policies - The report outlines various policies implemented in the second half of 2024 aimed at regulating the construction industry and promoting its transformation [2][73]. - Key policies include the introduction of guidelines for digital and green transformation in the construction sector, emphasizing the need for sustainable development [2][73]. Industry Development Status - The construction industry achieved a total output value of 217,411 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.40%, although this represents a decline of 1.40 percentage points compared to the previous year [75]. - The report notes a significant decrease in real estate development investment, which fell by 10.10% year-on-year, with new construction areas also experiencing a decline of 22.20% [34][40]. - The report emphasizes the increasing concentration within the industry, with the eight major central construction enterprises accounting for 46.13% of new contracts signed in the first three quarters of 2024 [70][75]. Financial Performance - The total operating revenue of construction enterprises decreased by 5.61% year-on-year, with private enterprises experiencing the largest decline [24][25]. - The median profit margin for construction enterprises saw a decline, with private enterprises facing the most significant challenges [25][26]. - The report indicates that the overall debt burden for construction enterprises has increased, with the median asset-liability ratio rising by 0.50 percentage points compared to the previous year [28][28]. Cash Flow and Debt Issuance - The net cash flow from operating activities for construction enterprises was negative, with a significant increase in cash flow gaps, particularly for local state-owned enterprises [31][52]. - The report highlights a notable increase in the issuance of medium- and long-term bonds by construction enterprises, with a downward trend in bond issuance rates due to a relatively loose credit environment [19][60].

1 从统筹"总供给和总需求"、"质量和总量"关系研判 明年经济工作 联合资信 研究中心 中央经济工作会议 12 月 11 日至 12 日在北京召开，对政治局会议提出的超常 规逆周期调节和 9 项重点工作做出了详细部署，提出了"明年要保持经济稳定增 长，保持就业、物价总体稳定"的发展目标。较往年，会议将物价稳定的工作重要 性提高，提出了专项行动和综合措施。提高赤字率、增发超长期特别国债、增加专 项债发行使用、用好总量和结构货币政策等逆周期调节工具都有明确提及。9 项重 点工作依次是：全方位扩大国内需求、建设现代化产业体系、推动标志性改革措施 落地见效、扩大高水平对外开放、防范化解重点领域风险、促进城乡融合发展、加 大区域战略实施力度、加紧全面绿色转型、加大保障和改善民生力度。面对 2025 年工作，会议提出五大统筹，协调好十方面关系。十个方面是：市场和政府、总供 给和总需求、新动能和旧动能、增量和存量、质量和总量。从五大统筹来看，对接 下来几年的经济工作提出了新要求和新理念，要修正矫偏，将之前做的少的工作 着重补齐。从构建国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新格局角度出 发，"总供给和总需求"和"质量和总 ...

"锂"清过往，合"锂"预期 联合资信 工商评级三部 在当今全球能源转型背景之下，锂金属独特的性质使其在高性能电池中具有不可替 代的作用，为新能源产业重要基础材料和实现全球碳中和的基础资源。2020 年以来，锂 价经历了剧烈变动，供需关系错配是导致其价格波动的决定性因素。在锂价快速上涨行 情下，行业内锂盐企业经营业绩表现显著向好，而后锂价暴跌的下行周期无差别地冲击 着行业内企业。本文选取 8 家锂盐企业为样本，结合财务数据表现浅析其经营业绩分化 原因以及重点影响因素。综合来看，在下行周期中，资源自给率高、技术水平先进、生 产成本低、融资方式灵活、再融资能力强且拥有风险分散能力的企业整体抗风险能力更 强。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业概况 锂因其在电池领域的广泛应用，被我国列为战略性新兴产业矿产，同时也是全球 多个国家和地区关注的重要矿产资源。锂资源产业链主要分为上游采选、中游冶炼和 下游应用三个方面。 上游锂矿方面，锂资源主要分为锂矿石（如锂辉石、锂云母）和盐湖卤水两大类， 其中卤水锂资源的占比约为 60%。近年来，锂在动力电池和储能电池领域的应用日益 增多，推动了全球对锂资源的勘 ...

1 准确认识超常规逆周期调节 把握全方位扩内需政策 联合资信 研究中心 中共中央政治局 12 月 9 日召开会议，分析研究 2025 年经济工作。会议强调， 实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加强超 常规逆周期调节，打好政策"组合拳"，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性。 会议指出了 2025 年的 9 项工作重点，将"全方位扩大国内需求"放在首要位置， 突出直面内需不足的核心矛盾。年末政治局会议是对明年经济工作定总调子，此次 会议紧跟经济增速在三季度出现回落时突显的新情况、新问题，总结"两重"、"两 新"的工作经验，前瞻性应对外部冲击，将宏观调控总基调在 2024 年基础上做出 重大调整，进一步拿出真金白银提振信心，而消费是明年工作的首要抓手。下面， 重点研判 2025 年的财政、货币和扩内需的政策走向。 第一，从"积极"到"更加积极"预示中央财政赤字进一步提高，或超过 4%， 超长期特别国债进一步加码。化解地方政府隐性债务的 10 万亿政策工具已经推出， 此次会议强调的政策增量更多是针对中央财政空间。2023 年在发行"两重"超长 期特别国债的背景下，中央财政赤字实际提高到 ...

盈尺"储"瑞，载涂"兆"丰 ——新型储能对新能源发电企业的影响浅析 联合资信 工商评级三部 近年来，我国新能源装机容量迅猛扩张，为缓和电网输配电稳定性压力以及新能源限电严重 问题，政策导向逐步加强对储能建设要求，但由于储能市场交易制度及充放电调度落实等方面仍 存在欠缺，当前储能单体项目仍处于亏损状态，即目前配储指标单向增加新能源发电企业建设成 本。 长远看，在可以完全参与市场交易、充分接受电网调度的基础上，新型配储项目将有助于减 少新能源项目弃电量、提升整体新能源项目发电量（储能项目被调用）或变相推高该项目上网电 价（储能项目产生正收益）；独立储能项目也可通过峰谷价差、容量租赁和容量补偿产生正收益。 "配有有效储能"可以一定程度降低新能源发电企业的信用风险。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、 新型电力系统下新型储能的意义 自提出"双碳"政策以来，我国能源结构转型步伐加快，以"风光"为代表的可 再生能源发电装机规模呈快速增长态势。根据国家能源局数据统计，截至 2023 年底， 我国太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增长 55.2%和 20.7%至 6.1 亿千瓦和 4.4 亿 千瓦，装机增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the cement industry, with expectations of continued pressure on profitability and potential for further capacity reduction policies by 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - Cement demand remains weak in 2024, exacerbated by a downturn in the real estate market and slowing infrastructure investment, leading to a significant drop in cement production [3][5]. - The industry is experiencing structural overcapacity, with a notable decline in cement prices despite some recovery since September 2024, influenced by supply-side measures [1][9]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges posed by high coal prices and the impact of environmental regulations under the "dual carbon" goals, which are expected to further constrain supply and profitability [1][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Industry Operations - The real estate market is in a bottom adjustment phase, with a 22.6% year-on-year decline in new housing starts from January to October 2024, contributing to weak cement demand [3]. - National cement production reached 1.501 billion tons from January to October 2024, the lowest since 2010, reflecting a 10.3% year-on-year decrease [5][6]. 2. Cement Price Performance - Cement prices have shown some recovery since April 2024, entering a growth phase in September, but remain low compared to previous years [9][15]. - Regional price variations are significant, with the Northeast and East China regions experiencing earlier price recoveries [16]. 3. Industry Profitability - The cement industry is facing increasing losses, with a 62.42% year-on-year decline in total profits reported by major listed companies in 2024 [17]. - The proportion of loss-making companies has increased, with 36% of firms reporting losses, indicating a worsening financial outlook for the sector [17]. 4. Policy Dynamics - The report discusses the normalization of staggered production policies aimed at addressing short-term supply-demand imbalances, with many regions extending their production halts [19][21]. - The "dual carbon" and "dual control" policies are tightening capacity replacement requirements, which may help alleviate overcapacity issues in the long term [26][33]. 5. Real Estate Market Impact - Despite the introduction of various easing policies, the real estate market remains weak, with ongoing inventory pressures and a slow recovery in demand expected [36].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the real estate industry, suggesting that the current downtrend may continue, with potential for stabilization in the near future [1][9]. Core Insights - The real estate market in China has experienced four distinct cycles over the past two decades, with the current cycle beginning in March 2015 and characterized by a prolonged downturn [9][12]. - The report highlights that the current cycle's downtrend has been significantly longer and more severe compared to previous cycles, with sales volume and prices showing signs of instability [1][9]. - Recent data suggests a potential turning point, with improvements in sales area growth and stabilization in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities as of October 2024 [1][9][80]. Summary by Sections 1. Housing Policy Development - The evolution of housing policies in China has transitioned from a focus on public housing to a market-oriented approach since the late 1990s, with significant reforms aimed at stabilizing the housing market [3][4][6]. - The introduction of the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy in 2016 marked a pivotal shift in the government's approach to real estate, emphasizing the need for a balanced housing supply and demand [6][9]. 2. Domestic Real Estate Cycle Classification - The report categorizes the real estate market into four cycles based on cumulative sales area growth, with the current cycle being the longest and most challenging [9][10]. - The first three cycles lasted approximately three years each, while the current cycle has extended beyond nine years, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [9][12]. 3. Sales and Price Trends - Sales volume peaked in 2021, with a notable increase in both sales area and monetary value, but has since faced substantial declines, particularly in early 2024 [62][63]. - The report notes that housing prices in first-tier cities have shown a more pronounced fluctuation compared to second and third-tier cities, with a delayed response in price adjustments following changes in sales volume [63][64]. 4. Inventory and Debt Issues - The report highlights a concerning trend of increasing inventory levels, particularly during the current cycle, which has led to a prolonged period of adjustment and debt defaults among real estate companies [70][71]. - The financialization of the real estate sector has resulted in high leverage and vulnerability among developers, leading to widespread defaults and a credit crisis that has affected both small and large firms [70][71]. 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while there are signs of potential recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to demographic shifts, economic pressures, and the need for structural reforms in the housing market [80].