盈尺"储"瑞，载涂"兆"丰 ——新型储能对新能源发电企业的影响浅析 联合资信 工商评级三部 近年来，我国新能源装机容量迅猛扩张，为缓和电网输配电稳定性压力以及新能源限电严重 问题，政策导向逐步加强对储能建设要求，但由于储能市场交易制度及充放电调度落实等方面仍 存在欠缺，当前储能单体项目仍处于亏损状态，即目前配储指标单向增加新能源发电企业建设成 本。 长远看，在可以完全参与市场交易、充分接受电网调度的基础上，新型配储项目将有助于减 少新能源项目弃电量、提升整体新能源项目发电量（储能项目被调用）或变相推高该项目上网电 价（储能项目产生正收益）；独立储能项目也可通过峰谷价差、容量租赁和容量补偿产生正收益。 "配有有效储能"可以一定程度降低新能源发电企业的信用风险。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、 新型电力系统下新型储能的意义 自提出"双碳"政策以来，我国能源结构转型步伐加快，以"风光"为代表的可 再生能源发电装机规模呈快速增长态势。根据国家能源局数据统计，截至 2023 年底， 我国太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增长 55.2%和 20.7%至 6.1 亿千瓦和 4.4 亿 千瓦，装机增速 ...

会议要点 1、宏观政策 政策取向积极：包括前几天的政治局会议和中央经济工作会议，政策取向积极，要求宏观政 策更加积极有为，把握稳中求进的工作基调，明年 GDP 增长目标可能在 5%左右，要求实现 经济稳中向好，就业、物价保持稳定。 超常规逆周期政策：提出超常规的逆周期政策，政策力度加大，可能有新的政策工具，货币 政策从稳健趋向变为适度宽松，上一次货币政策转向发生在 2008 年，此次货币政策转向对 市场影响较大，明年货币政策可能较为积极。 2、财政政策 赤字率和国债：中央经济工作会议要求一般公共预算的赤字率提高，可能在 3.5 到 4 之间， 接近上限，明年一般预算的赤字会达到 5 万多亿，特别国债可能从今年的 1 万亿增加到 2 万亿。 地方专项债：地方专项债今年是 3.9 万亿，明年可能会达到 4.5 万亿以上。 财政政策方向：关注财政政策量的扩张和方向性变化，会向民生方面加大力度，补贴范围可 能扩大，包括手机、平板电脑等，同时关注对中低收入群体的转移支付和生育补贴等，财政 政策正在转向。 3、货币政策 适度宽松：明确提出适度宽松的货币政策，金融会议新闻稿也明确讲了要适时降息降准，保 持市场流动性充裕，央 ...

更详细的分析那么首先呢我们此前一直强调包括就是开了一系列电话会议是吧包括在市场十月中旬大家不要悲观的时候我们明确强调年底的政治会议和中央金融会议将在预期管理等方面呈现出一个表述非常积极的特点那么这是驱动明年上半年最重要的行情就税贸联储行情的这样一个核心因素 那么所以我们也是坚定的在叹此事 是吧就是说最末年初的总政治会议中央中央会议行情在前两周已经明确启动了我们坚定看好12月份开始到春节前后的这一波行情 是吧那今天年底的政治会议召开你自己表述是符合我们此前的预期的那么爱尔米亚和港股也是出现了快速拉升 我们将从如下几个方面理性的看待这一会议以及更重要的就今天召开了一个更重要的党安宣传会这也是大英辽总书记亲自过去的那么首先我们说一下这几个问题第一个政策总体的基调跟九月份相比有什么变化我们可以说明确这次会议就跟之前的所有的官位一样相对九月份的整个政策基调来说是明显的更加自信了九月份的政治会议我们强调的是什么强调努力完成目标 那么这次在党外集团会上领导明确强调今年的社会发展主要目标任务将顺利完成做好民营经济工作首先是要坚定必须的信心这些都说明相对九月当前政策的信心是显著增强的那么第二点就是说总量政策定理有没有变化有没有 ...

感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 大家好欢迎参加中信剑头大消费联合电话会议目前所有参会者身体平静状态下面开始布报免责声明声明布布完毕后主持人可直接发言风险提示及免责声明一本次会议为中信剑头研究发展部组织的闭门会议请面向中信剑头把名单客户参加会议的投资者不得制作会议纪要包括在不限于文字纪要录音录像截屏等形式 并对外转发给任何其他个人或机构擅自制作编辑及转发会议纪要引起不当传播的中性箭头有权追究其法律责任 本次会议内容在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议且中性箭头不承诺不保障所含具有预测性质的内容必然得以实现敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险三 本次会议包含信息均来源于中信箭头认为可靠的公开资料但中信箭头对这些信息的准确性时效性以及完整性不做任何保证本次会议如涉及专家分享该专家分享仅代表专家个人观点不代表中信箭头立场 在法律法规及监管规定允许的范围内中信建投可能持有并交易本次会议所提及公司的股份或其他财产权益也可能在过去目前或者将来为所提及公司提供或者争取为其提供投资银行做市交易财务顾问或其他金融服务 5.本次会议内容的知识产权仅为中信线头所有未经中信线头 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the US real estate market or the Chinese real estate market [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The US real estate market has experienced long-term prosperity driven by factors such as population growth, economic growth, and financial liberalization, with significant fluctuations during the 1982-2012 period due to technological advancements and financial crises [3][25][66] - Post-crisis, the US real estate market has stabilized with a focus on existing home transactions and operations, indicating a mature market structure [3][39] - The Chinese real estate market is transitioning from a new home-dominated market to a market where both new and existing homes coexist, with urbanization still having room for growth [104][105] US Real Estate Development History - The US real estate market can be divided into three phases: post-war boom to crisis (1946-1981), new economic bubble and burst (1982-2012), and post-crisis era (2013-present) [3][5][25] - The post-war boom was driven by population growth, manufacturing development, and government housing policies, while the 1982-2012 period saw significant price fluctuations due to technological advancements and financial crises [5][25][33] - The post-crisis era has seen a recovery in housing prices, but demand growth has slowed, with the market shifting towards existing home transactions [39][66] US Real Estate Market Characteristics - The US real estate market is characterized by a developed mortgage finance system, with a primary market for mortgage issuance and a secondary market for mortgage securitization [46][48] - The market is dominated by private land ownership, with 60.9% of land privately owned, and a focus on existing home transactions, which account for over 85% of sales [54][58] - The US real estate market has a strong consumption attribute, with housing services contributing significantly to GDP, and a lower investment attribute compared to the stock market [67][70] US Real Estate Market Competition - The US real estate market is highly competitive, with a focus on existing home transactions and a mature industry structure [81][89] - Major real estate companies in the US include large developers like D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup, which dominate the new home market, while independent real estate agents handle the majority of existing home sales [90][91] - The market is characterized by high specialization and low concentration, with many small and medium-sized developers operating in regional markets [90][91] Implications for China's Real Estate Market - China's real estate market is transitioning from a new home-dominated market to a market where both new and existing homes coexist, with urbanization still having room for growth [104][105] - The US experience suggests that China should focus on developing the secondary mortgage market, improving housing quality, and promoting professionalization and specialization in the real estate industry [105][106] - The US market also highlights the importance of reducing financial leverage and transitioning to a lighter asset model to enhance risk resistance [110] Future Trends in China's Real Estate Market - The Chinese real estate market is expected to see a shift towards existing home transactions, with a focus on improving housing quality and professionalization [105][106] - The market may also see increased consolidation, with large developers dominating the market while smaller, specialized developers remain competitive in niche markets [109] - The industry may transition towards a lighter asset model, with a focus on reducing financial leverage and improving operational efficiency [110]

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 《银团贷款业务管理办法》 的解读 联合资信 金融评级一部 | 刘敏哲 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co.,Ltd. 深化金融监管与服务实体经济—《银团贷款业务管理办法》 的解读 作者：金融评级一部 刘敏哲 为了进一步优化和完善银团贷款业务的管理和监管，推动银团贷款业务规范健康 发展，近日，国家金融监督管理总局发布了《银团贷款业务管理办法》（以下简称《办 法》）。《办法》明确了监管导向，要求银行在开展银团贷款业务时，要更好地支持实 体经济的发展，同时有效防范和化解风险。办法丰富了银团筹组模式，优化了分销比 例和二级市场转让规则，提升了开展银团贷款业务的便利性。此外，该办法还进一步 完善了银团定价机制，规范了银团收费的原则和方式，并对银团贷款管理提出了更为 系统化的要求。《办法》的实施，体现了监管部门"问题导向、守正创新、统筹兼顾" 的原则，能够有效推动银行在为经济社会发展提供高质量金融供给的同时，强化同业 合作、有效防范化解信用风险。 一、政策出台背景 《办法》正式实施前，在中国境内依法设立并经营贷款业务的银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese power battery industry has experienced rapid growth over the past decade, with a significant increase in domestic installation volume, but the growth rate has declined, indicating potential overcapacity risks [1][2] - The EU's new battery legislation and carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) create new "green barriers" for Chinese battery manufacturers, necessitating increased investment and operational costs to comply with sustainability standards [1][6][12] - The EU market presents substantial growth potential for new energy vehicles, making it a critical market for Chinese power battery companies [2][5] Summary by Sections 1. Development of the Chinese Power Battery Industry and Importance of the European Market - The installation volume of Chinese power batteries increased from 0.35 GWh in 2011 to 387.7 GWh in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 79.35% [2] - The export volume of power batteries rose significantly, with exports increasing from 68.1 GWh in the previous year to 127.4 GWh in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 87.1% [4] 2. Core Content of the EU New Battery Law and "Carbon Tariff" Policy - The New Battery Law sets various execution standards for battery and raw material recycling rates, carbon footprint management, and requires companies to manage their product carbon footprints [6][8] - The CBAM calculates product carbon emissions based on production and raw material processes, determining carbon tariff amounts based on the EU carbon market prices [11] 3. Potential Impacts of the New Battery Law and "Carbon Tariff" Policy on Chinese Power Battery Companies - The implementation of the New Battery Law will require significant additional investments from Chinese power battery companies, increasing operational costs and posing challenges to their capital strength [12][13] - If the CBAM expands to include the power battery sector, it could significantly impact the profitability of Chinese power battery companies [12][14] 4. Responses of the Chinese Power Battery Industry - Many leading power battery companies have begun implementing carbon footprint management and are actively preparing to meet EU standards [19][20] - Some companies have established production capacities in Europe to better integrate into local supply chains and comply with local regulations [23] - Efforts to increase the use of clean energy and promote zero-carbon factories are underway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [24][26]

Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The "Commercial Bank Capital Management Measures" based on Basel III will be implemented on January 1, 2024, significantly influencing the future development of the banking industry[1] - The capital regulation aims to provide a foundational supervisory framework for commercial banks, particularly in the context of asset securitization[1] Group 2: Risk Capital Measurement - The new capital regulation redefines the risk asset measurement methods, with most banks expected to continue using the weighted method for loan risk capital and external rating methods for standardized assets like bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS)[2] - The risk capital measurement for ABS is notably influenced by the underlying assets, with the actual risk levels being closely aligned[2] Group 3: Capital Requirement Discrepancies - A comparison of risk capital requirements before and after securitization shows that the ABS requires approximately 3.3 times the risk capital of the underlying personal loans, indicating a significant overestimation of risk post-securitization[8] - Different tranching designs in securitization lead to varying risk capital measurements, with the total risk capital for ABS decreasing as more senior tranches are added[12] Group 4: Recommendations - It is recommended that the total risk capital required for assets before and after securitization should remain consistent, reflecting the actual risk levels of the underlying assets[17] - The risk capital measurement for subordinate tranches should not use a uniform ratio across different securitization structures, as this does not accurately reflect the varying risk levels associated with different tranching designs[17]

IDC Industry Overview - The domestic IDC rack scale and market revenue have been steadily increasing, with third-party IDC service providers dominating the market [3] - In 2023, the total scale of domestic IDC racks exceeded 8.1 million standard racks, with market revenue reaching approximately 190 billion yuan, showing a three-year compound annual growth rate of 27.2% [3] - Third-party IDC service providers accounted for 51.86% of the market share in 2022, surpassing the market share of basic telecom operators for the first time [5] IDC Business Models - The IDC business model is divided into wholesale and retail types, with most third-party IDC service providers adopting the wholesale model [5] - In the wholesale model, third-party IDC service providers build and manage IDCs based on the planning and operational service requirements of telecom operators or large internet companies, with longer order cycles and contract durations [5] - The retail model targets small and medium-sized internet companies and general industrial and commercial companies, offering standardized IDC hosting and value-added services with shorter order cycles and contract durations [6] IDC Asset Securitization Financing Models - IDC enterprises can use the fee income rights model to issue asset-backed securities, especially for retail IDC businesses with higher customer dispersion [8] - The fee income rights ABS model relies on the future IDC service fee income during the product's duration and the issuance interest rate of the priority securities [10] - The CMBS model is suitable for IDC enterprises with heavy asset operations, but factors such as transfer restrictions and refinancing clause limitations need to be considered [13][14] - The quasi-REITs model allows IDC enterprises to transfer project company equity for financing, offering better asset disposal efficiency compared to CMBS [16] - Public REITs are considered the preferred ABS financing method for IDC enterprises, providing diversified options for both original shareholders and investors [19][20] Special Legal and Operational Considerations for IDC Projects - IDC projects require compliance with energy efficiency reviews, with the core indicator being the Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) value, which should be below 1.4 for new large and ultra-large IDC projects [27] - IDC projects must pass technical evaluations by designated institutions before operation, and obtain the necessary telecommunications business operation licenses [28] - The transferability of IDC projects and project companies requires approval from relevant authorities, especially when involving changes in business entities [29][30] Differences Between IDC Projects and Commercial Real Estate - IDC project site selection is influenced by resource endowments, including climate, electricity, network resources, and energy consumption policies, with a focus on areas around first-tier cities or remote regions [31][32] - The cost structure of IDC projects differs from commercial real estate, with lower land costs but higher electromechanical equipment costs, which depreciate faster [33] - IDC projects often require customization due to the rapid update cycles of servers and the diverse needs of different industries, limiting the potential buyer pool during asset disposal [35] Factors Affecting IDC Project Returns - The occupancy rate of IDC projects is influenced by geographical location, with higher rates in first-tier cities and surrounding areas compared to other regions [36] - Different lease models, such as Triple Net, Double Net, and Wholesale Colocation, affect rental income stability and pricing levels [37][38] - The concentration of users in wholesale IDC businesses may conflict with the requirement for dispersed cash flow sources in public REITs, making quasi-REITs or private REITs more suitable [39] - Value-added services provided by third-party IDC service providers enhance user stickiness and profitability, especially in the face of competition from telecom operators [40] Operational Costs and Capital Expenditures - Electricity costs are a significant component of IDC operational expenses, accounting for 40-60% of total costs [41] - IDC projects require continuous capital expenditures for the replacement of core components such as servers, hard drives, and UPS battery packs, with replacement cycles shortened to 3-5 years due to high-intensity operating environments [41][43] Valuation and Disposal Challenges - The valuation of IDC projects is complex, influenced by factors such as geographical location, energy efficiency, power networks, and customer resources [44] - The disposal value of IDC projects fluctuates over time due to rapid depreciation of equipment and the need for technological upgrades, with a limited pool of potential buyers further complicating the disposal process [44]

Group 1: Capital Regulation Overview - The new capital regulation will be implemented on January 1, 2024, based on Basel III principles, significantly influencing the banking sector's future development[1] - Risk capital requirements for asset-backed securities (ABS) have been notably reduced, with AAA-rated securities' capital charge decreasing from 20% to 10%[1] - In contrast, the capital charge for non-performing asset-backed securities (NPL ABS) has increased, with AAA-rated NPL ABS now requiring a minimum capital charge of 100%, up from 20%[1][2] Group 2: Risk Capital Requirements - The capital regulation establishes differentiated risk capital requirements based on asset risk levels, with low-risk assets like cash and government bonds requiring a 0% capital charge[2] - High-risk assets, such as corporate loans, have a capital charge of 100%, while some extremely high-risk assets may require up to 1250%[2][3] - The capital charge for general ABS follows a similar pattern, with AAA-rated securities at 10% and BBB-rated at 55%[3] Group 3: NPL ABS Performance and Risk Assessment - Despite the higher capital charge, NPL ABS can still be attractive investments due to their structured layering and internal credit enhancements, which mitigate risks[8][12] - Data from 42 NPL ABS issued in 2023 shows that the actual recovery rates range from 1.17% to 37.49%, with most projects performing better than initial predictions[12] - The performance of priority NPL ABS has been consistent, with 27 out of 28 projects maturing earlier than expected, indicating low risk comparable to general ABS[12]