YTCO(600066) 长江证券·2024-12-08 09:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company has shown strong sales performance with November sales of 3,736 buses, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.7% and a month-on-month increase of 16.0%. Cumulatively, from January to November, total sales reached 38,303 buses, up 20.4% year-on-year [5][7]. - The company is benefiting from a decline in battery costs and economies of scale, which support continuous performance improvement. Additionally, the company has a strong cash flow that ensures high dividends [5][7]. - The domestic market is experiencing growth in seated buses, while the overseas market is advancing through globalization and high-end strategies, enhancing profitability [5][7]. Sales Performance - In November, the company sold 3,736 buses, with a year-on-year increase of 13.7% and a month-on-month increase of 16.0%. The sales of large and medium buses were 2,744, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.4% [5][6]. - From January to November, the total sales of buses reached 38,303, with large and medium bus sales at 33,204, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and 19.6%, respectively [5][6]. Export and New Energy Vehicles - The company has seen strong performance in exports and new energy vehicle exports, with the export volume and proportion continuing to rise. The company maintains its annual sales guidance and expects strong performance in new energy exports in December [5][6]. - The export market for large and medium buses achieved a total of 36,000 units from January to October, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.8% [5][6]. Market Strategy and Competitive Position - The company is enhancing its direct sales and service model, which improves service quality and efficiency. It has maintained a market share of 32.7% in the large and medium bus segment from January to October 2024 [6][7]. - The company has a competitive edge in the electric bus sector and is accelerating its international expansion under the "Belt and Road" initiative, which is expected to contribute to new growth [6][7]. Financial Performance and Dividends - The company has a robust cash flow that supports high dividends, with a projected dividend of 0.5 yuan per share (including tax) for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 1.11 billion yuan and a dividend payout ratio of 45.5% [7]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is projected to be 3.51 billion, 4.21 billion, and 5.02 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.3X, 11.9X, and 10.0X [7].