ToLand(300855) 天风证券·2024-12-11 00:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.7 yuan [5] Core Views - The company is a core supplier of high-temperature alloys and advanced metal materials for military and high-end civilian applications, with a strong track record of growth [1] - From 2013 to 2023, the company achieved a CAGR of 18.67% in revenue and 40% in net profit attributable to the parent company [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the aero-engine industry chain, with accelerated production of aero-engine castings and master alloys [2] - The company's Shenyang subsidiary is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, driven by local government support and strong demand from key customers [3] - The company has extended its industrial chain both horizontally and vertically, increasing its single-unit supporting value and enhancing its business lifecycle through aftermarket services [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1,032.38 million yuan in 2022 to 2,838.29 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.5% [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 254.80 million yuan in 2022 to 680.90 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 21.8% [8] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 41.45 in 2022 to 15.51 in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [8] - The company's EBITDA is projected to grow from 347.74 million yuan in 2022 to 837.13 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.2% [8] Industry and Market Outlook - The aero-engine industry is expected to enter a period of rapid growth, driven by new model deployments and inventory cycle recovery [2] - The Shenyang government aims to achieve significant breakthroughs in the aviation industry, with a target of 120 billion yuan in industrial output by 2025 [3] - The company's market position is strengthened by its comprehensive industrial chain layout, from master alloys to structural components, and its increasing share of aftermarket services [4] Strategic Developments - The company has expanded its product portfolio to include small and medium-sized engine accessories, which are consumable and require replacement during engine overhauls, further enhancing its business lifecycle [4] - The company's Shenyang subsidiary is expected to benefit from the local government's push for increased local sourcing, with a target of 50% local sourcing rate for key customers [3]