Haoneng(603809) 浙商证券·2024-12-16 08:23Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [5][6] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in the mechanical transmission industry, with expectations that its humanoid robot business will exceed market expectations [2] - The company has strong potential in both the new energy vehicle (NEV) and robotics sectors, particularly in planetary gear reducers, which are expected to see high penetration rates and a market size reaching billions [3] - The company has passed its peak capital expenditure period and is expected to enter a rapid growth phase in revenue and profits, driving improvements in gross margin and ROE [3] Business Expansion and Growth - The company is expanding its planetary gear reducer business, leveraging its technological advantages and strong customer base in the NEV sector [3] - In 2024, the company invested 1 billion yuan in the first phase of its intelligent manufacturing core components project, focusing on NEV planetary gear reducers and high-precision industrial planetary gear reducers, with plans for further expansion in robotics-related fields [3] - The company's differential business is growing rapidly, with revenue reaching 272 million yuan in 2023, a 124.5% year-on-year increase, and gross margins turning positive in the first half of 2024 [3] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's gross margin and ROE in 2023 were 31.06% and 8.35%, respectively, both at historical lows, but are expected to improve as capacity utilization increases and economies of scale are realized [3] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.409 billion yuan, 3.034 billion yuan, and 3.716 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.8%, 25.9%, and 22.5%, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 314 million yuan, 405 million yuan, and 508 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 72.4%, 29.2%, and 25.4%, respectively [5] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.49 yuan, 0.63 yuan, and 0.79 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.43x, 18.90x, and 15.07x [5] Key Metrics and Catalysts - Key indicators to monitor include the company's progress in securing orders for humanoid robot reducers, revenue growth, gross margin, ROE, and fixed asset turnover [4] - Potential catalysts include faster-than-expected industrialization of humanoid robots, securing more orders for humanoid robot reducers, and exceeding expectations in revenue growth, gross margin, and ROE [4] Financial Summary - The company's revenue in 2023 was 1.946 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.2% [10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was 182 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [10] - ROE in 2023 was 8.4%, with projections for 2024-2026 at 12.4%, 13.4%, and 14.5%, respectively [10]