Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for the real estate industry [1][2][3] Core Views - In November, the month-on-month decline in second-hand and new residential property prices in 70 cities continued to narrow, with second-hand home prices in first-tier cities rising by 0.4% for two consecutive months, and new home prices stabilizing [3][5] - National commercial housing sales data showed positive year-on-year growth for the first time since June 2023, with cumulative sales decline narrowing from January to November [3][5] - The land market improved significantly in November, with a narrowing decline in real estate development funding sources and a significant rebound in personal mortgage loans and advance payments [3][16] - The Central Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference in December reiterated the policy tone of stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations of further policy support in 2025, particularly in reducing the high actual mortgage interest rates [3][33] Price and Sales Performance - In November, second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.35% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.13 percentage points, with first-tier cities rising by 0.4% for the second consecutive month [7] - New home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.20% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.31 percentage points, with first-tier cities stabilizing after a previous decline [9] - National commercial housing sales area and sales volume in November increased by 3.2% and 1.0% year-on-year, respectively, marking the first positive growth since June 2023 [13] Investment Performance - Real estate development investment in November was 7325.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.75 percentage points to 11.6%, but the cumulative decline from January to November expanded to 10.4% [17] - Real estate development funding sources in November were 9340.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 6.0 percentage points to 4.8%, supported by a rebound in personal mortgage loans and advance payments [19] - New construction, construction, and completion areas in November fell by 26.8%, 40.2%, and 38.8% year-on-year, respectively, with cumulative declines expanding from January to November [23] Land Market Performance - In November, the planned construction area of residential land transactions in 100 major cities was 5510.9 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, with total transaction value rising by 84.9% year-on-year [26][27] - The average land price per square meter in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities increased by 29.9%, 21.1%, and 3.1% month-on-month, respectively [27] Policy Outlook - The Central Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations of further policy support in 2025, particularly in reducing high actual mortgage interest rates [31][33] - The central bank is expected to implement significant interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2025, with a potential policy rate cut of 0.5 percentage points, higher than the 0.3 percentage points cut in 2024 [33]
2024年11月房地产行业运行情况报告：量价指标延续积极变化 投资端修复仍需时间
东方金诚·2024-12-18 05:14