Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Horizon Robotics-W (09660 HK) with a target price of HKD 3 82 per share, implying a 2026E P/S of 9 5x and a forward PE of less than 30x based on steady-state assumptions [2] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading domestic intelligent driving solution provider, ranking fourth in China's ADAS and AD solution market in 2023 and first among Chinese companies [2] - The company holds a 35% market share in China's NOA high-end intelligent driving computing solutions, second only to NVIDIA's 49% [2] - The global intelligent driving solution market is expected to reach RMB 1 trillion by 2030, with high-end autonomous driving solutions dominating the market [2] - Horizon Robotics benefits from its strong software-hardware integration capabilities, first-mover advantage, and domestic substitution trends [2] Company Overview - Horizon Robotics generated RMB 1 55 billion in revenue in 2023, with automotive product solutions, licensing and services, and non-automotive solutions accounting for 33%, 62%, and 5% respectively [2] - The company's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 47% from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 5 billion by 2026 [2] - Horizon Robotics' core management team has strong technical backgrounds, with founders holding significant voting power (53 64% and 12 09%) [80][93] Industry Analysis - The global intelligent driving solution market is expected to grow from RMB 61 9 billion in 2023 to over RMB 1 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 49 2% [106] - In China, the market is projected to expand from RMB 24 5 billion in 2023 to RMB 407 billion by 2030, with high-end autonomous driving solutions growing at a CAGR of 58 5% [108] - Key drivers include rapid technological iteration, increasing penetration of intelligent driving, rising ASPs for high-end solutions, and supportive government policies [113] Competitive Advantages - Horizon Robotics' strengths lie in its software-defined hardware approach, strong customer stickiness due to high switching costs, and its position as a domestic player benefiting from localization trends [2] - The company has established a comprehensive product portfolio, including Horizon Mono, Horizon Pilot, and Horizon SuperDrive, with the latter expected to contribute to revenue from 2024 [71][76] Growth Drivers - The company's hardware business is expected to benefit from the downward penetration of intelligent driving in the automotive sector, while its software business will gain from OEMs' increasing in-house R&D efforts [2] - Horizon Robotics' partnership with Volkswagen through the joint venture Coretronic is expected to drive growth in licensing and services [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 2 24 billion in 2024E to RMB 4 97 billion in 2026E, with non-GAAP net profit turning positive in 2026E at RMB 322 million [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain strong, ranging between 70%-80%, driven by the high-margin licensing business [99]
地平线机器人-W：国产智驾方案龙头，业绩成长性佳