YanKershop(002847) 东兴证券·2024-12-25 08:12Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strongly Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price range of 58.88-35.78 yuan [7][15] Core Views - The company has transitioned from being primarily driven by direct supermarket sales to being driven by discount snack stores and e-commerce, with distribution as the foundation [97] - The company's growth potential is strong, driven by multiple channels including TikTok, discount snack stores, and distribution networks [15] - The company's revenue from discount snack channels is expected to reach 30 billion yuan in the future, with a potential 4x growth compared to 2023 [11][58] Channel Development - The company's traditional supermarket channel revenue has declined from 94% in 2020 to 59% in 2023, but still grew by 12.32% YoY in 2023 [1] - The discount snack channel contributed 25% of total revenue in H1 2024, with future growth driven by increased SKUs, new strategic partnerships, and core product sales [5][6] - E-commerce revenue grew by 48.40% YoY in H1 2024, accounting for 23.6% of total revenue, up 9.1 percentage points from 2022 [60] Market Potential - The discount snack market is projected to reach 210.6 billion yuan, with the potential for 81,000 stores nationwide [10][11] - The company's revenue from the discount snack channel is expected to grow to 30 billion yuan, driven by increased market share and SKU expansion [58] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to be 5.198 billion yuan in 2024, 6.429 billion yuan in 2025, and 7.649 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 26.44%, 28.24%, and 24.9% respectively [15] - Net profit is expected to be 645 million yuan in 2024, 827 million yuan in 2025, and 1.035 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 26.44%, 28.24%, and 24.9% respectively [15] Competitive Landscape - The company is the only fully self-manufacturing company among the top five snack brands, with a natural GMV share of 41.74% on TikTok in Q1 2024 [37] - The company's SKU count in discount snack stores has increased from 40 in 2023 to over 50 in 2024, with further growth expected [33] Regional Expansion - The company's sales are concentrated in Central China, accounting for 39% of total sales in 2023, with significant growth potential in other regions [77] - The company has 3,315 distributors nationwide, with a focus on Central and East China, and plans to expand further into other regions [159]