Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) [19] Core Views - NetEase Cloud Music focuses on increasing paid users and improving ARPPU, with future growth driven by both factors [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.3/1.5/1.7 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18/16/14X [2] Business Model and Revenue - Revenue mainly comes from online music services and social entertainment services, accounting for 63% and 37% of total revenue in 24H1 respectively [2] - Online music subscription revenue accounts for 84% of online music service revenue, with advertising and digital albums making up the remaining 16% [2] - Social entertainment service revenue is driven by MAU, payment rate, and ARPPU, with paid users increasing from 5800 in 2018 to 1.6 million in 2023 [10] Financial Performance - NetEase Cloud Music achieved its first annual profit in 2023, with a net profit of 700 million yuan and a net profit margin of 9% [2] - In 24H1, the company's net profit reached 800 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 20% [2] - Gross margin improved significantly from -4% in 21Q1 to 33% in 24Q3 [2] Industry Overview - The global music market is recovering, driven by the growth of streaming services, with China having the highest growth rate in 2023 [81][82] - The global streaming music market is relatively fragmented, with Spotify leading with a 32.1% market share in 2023 [103] - In China, the online music market has formed a "one super, one strong" competitive landscape, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music as the main players [105] Competitive Advantages - NetEase Cloud Music is one of the largest online incubators for independent musicians in China, with registered independent musicians increasing from 400,000 in 2021 to 684,000 in 2023 [121] - The platform has a strong community attribute, with over 48% of listeners browsing the comment section as of June 2021 [113] - The platform's user base is young, with 72% of users being post-00s in 2023 [112] Future Outlook - The company's strategy focuses on increasing paid users and improving ARPPU, with expected net profits of 1.3/1.5/1.7 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026 [2] - Gross margin is expected to continue to improve, reaching 34%/36%/37% in 2024/2025/2026, with net profit margins of 16%/17%/18% [142]
网易云音乐：原创和社区打造差异化，会员数提升为当下重点