LIUGONG(000528) 国金证券·2024-12-29 05:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected revenue of 34.8 billion yuan and net profit of 2.23 billion yuan in 2025 [19][27] Core Views - The company's 2025 operating plan targets revenue of 34.6 billion yuan and aims to increase the net profit margin by more than 1 percentage point [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the domestic construction machinery recovery cycle, particularly in the excavator segment, which accounts for 61.88% of its revenue [12] - The company's share repurchase plan, with a budget of 300-600 million yuan, demonstrates confidence in long-term development [12] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 26.48 billion yuan in 2022 to 40.43 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.2% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 599 million yuan in 2022 to 2.83 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 47.6% [3] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 3.81% in 2022 to 13.79% in 2026 [3] Market Position - The company's excavator sales in the domestic market grew by 20.5% YoY in November 2024, indicating strong market demand [12] - The company's market share in the domestic construction machinery sector is expected to expand due to the ongoing industry recovery [12] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 19.18 in 2022 to 7.99 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [3] - The P/B ratio is expected to remain stable, ranging from 0.73 to 1.29 during the forecast period [3]