Shandong Publishing&Media(601019) 东方证券·2024-12-30 01:52Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to Shandong Publishing with a target price of 15.60 RMB based on a 2025 P/E multiple of 15x [3][109] Core Views - Shandong Publishing is a leading publishing and distribution company in Shandong Province, with a core focus on textbook and supplementary materials, while actively exploring diversified business layouts [2][3] - The company has a complete industry chain covering publishing, distribution, printing, and material trade, with innovative businesses such as digital publishing, study tourism, smart education, and media integration [2][32] - From 2019 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 9.767 billion RMB to 12.154 billion RMB, with a CAGR of 5.62%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 1.544 billion RMB to 2.376 billion RMB, with a CAGR of 11.37% [2][40] Business Performance Textbook and Supplementary Materials - The textbook and supplementary materials business has shown steady growth, with publishing revenue CAGR of 10.55% and distribution revenue CAGR of 7.18% from 2019 to 2023 [2][75] - The student population in Shandong Province is stable, with 101 million permanent residents in 2023, ranking second in China, which supports the growth of the textbook business [2][52] - The proportion of middle and high school students in the K12 population increased from 41.1% in 2016 to 43.6% in 2022, which is expected to drive demand for supplementary materials [2][54] General Books - The general book market has been relatively weak, with a CAGR of -2.8% from 2019 to 2023, but the company's general book publishing and distribution business grew at a CAGR of 3.45% during the same period [2][88] - In 2023, the company's market share in book retail was 1.39%, and it has been actively promoting online sales through digital transformation [2][116] New Business Layouts - The study tourism business grew rapidly, with revenue increasing by over 60% in the first half of 2024 [2][119] - The company is developing smart education projects, such as the "Homework + Learning Diagnosis Big Data Feedback" project, which integrates textbook publishing with big data technology [2][123] - The company is also exploring new service scenarios in bookstores, such as "Senior Citizen University" and "Xinhua Study Room" [97][126] Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, the company's gross margin remained stable at 36%-39%, while the net margin increased from 15.8% to 19.5% [68][70] - The company has consistently increased cash dividends, with the dividend payout ratio rising from 43.25% in 2019 to 49.19% in 2023 [45][73] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.957 billion RMB, 2.177 billion RMB, and 2.314 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 0.94 RMB, 1.04 RMB, and 1.11 RMB [3][25] - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.9%, 4.3%, and 4.2% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins remaining stable at around 37.6%-37.8% [106][108]