SAIC MOTOR(600104) 民生证券·2025-01-05 02:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 21/17/15 for the years 2024-2026, respectively, and a current PB of 0.7 times [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from state-owned enterprise reforms, potentially leading to a bottom reversal in performance. Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 676.9 billion, 707.4 billion, and 747.0 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.9 billion, and 14.6 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2024, the company reported wholesale sales of 483,000 vehicles, totaling 4.013 million for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. Notably, the sales figures for various brands showed a decline, with SAIC-GM down 56.5% and SAIC Passenger Cars down 28.3%, while SAIC New Energy saw a growth of 9.9% [1][2]. Inventory and Delivery - The company achieved a terminal delivery of 4.639 million vehicles in 2024, exceeding wholesale sales, indicating a steady inventory reduction and a safe current inventory level. The share of self-owned brands increased to 60%, reflecting a 5.3 percentage point year-on-year growth [2]. New Energy Transition - The company plans to accelerate its transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs) by launching several new models in 2025, including compact and mid-size electric and hybrid vehicles. The focus will be on enhancing brand influence and integrating R&D, sales, and service efforts [3]. Management Changes - Significant management changes have occurred in 2024, aligning with state-owned enterprise reforms. The new leadership emphasizes resource integration and collaboration, aiming to accelerate the company's transformation towards smart electric vehicles [4]. Financial Projections - The financial forecast indicates a revenue decline of 9.1% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 4.5% and 5.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Net profit is projected to decrease by 26.0% in 2024 but rebound with a growth of 23.6% in 2025 [5][20].