VANKE(000002) 开源证券·2025-01-07 23:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for Vanke A is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate industry is still in an adjustment phase, with the company actively promoting inventory destocking and leveraging bulk transactions, REITs issuance, and financial support policies to alleviate operational pressures. Despite the challenges, there is an expectation for Vanke to safely navigate the cycle and establish a new development model for real estate companies. The profit forecast has been revised downwards due to inventory impairment pressure and significant discounts for destocking. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are -19.69 billion, -1.99 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -1.65, -0.17, and 0.15 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 47.5 times for 2026. Given the relatively stable sales scale, with monthly sales expected to maintain above 20 billion yuan, the "Outperform" rating is upheld [5][6][8]. Sales Performance - In December 2024, the company achieved a sales area of 1.727 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 32.72%, with a sales amount of 23.34 billion yuan, down 29.23% year-on-year. For the entire year of 2024, the cumulative sales area was 18.107 million square meters, down 26.57%, and the total sales amount was 246.02 billion yuan, down 34.59%. The average sales price per project in December 2024 was 13,515 yuan per square meter, up 5.19% year-on-year, while the cumulative average sales price for the year was 13,587 yuan per square meter, down 10.92% year-on-year [6][12]. Land Acquisition - In December 2024, the company acquired 4 plots of land, covering a total area of 213,000 square meters and a building area of 496,000 square meters, with an equity land price of 2.37 billion yuan. The monthly land acquisition intensity was 16.1%, the highest for the year, with a total of 15 new projects acquired throughout 2024, totaling a land price of 12.4 billion yuan and an equity land price of 6.2 billion yuan. The land acquisition intensity was 5%, lower than the 22% in 2023 and 2022, indicating a continued contraction in land acquisition [7][8]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates a decline in revenue from 503.84 billion yuan in 2022 to a projected 354.09 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 24%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop from 22.69 billion yuan in 2022 to -19.69 billion yuan in 2024. The gross margin is projected to decrease from 19.6% in 2022 to 6.0% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to turn negative at -6.2% in 2024. The EPS is projected to be -1.65 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of -4.2 [8][19][21].