金属行业周报：临近春节供需走弱，关注海外事件扰动

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [1] Core Views - The steel industry is expected to experience a decline in supply and demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to increased inventory pressure and potentially weaker short-term steel prices [1][17] - Copper demand is weak during the off-season, with tight copper ore supply and low smelting processing fees affecting production; short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate under raw material support [1][31] - Aluminum demand may weaken as the holiday season progresses, although the supply tightness trend is easing, which may reduce cost pressures [1][37] - Lithium market sentiment is optimistic for January, but high production enthusiasm on the supply side may lead to inventory pressure, resulting in wide fluctuations in lithium prices [1][42] Summary by Sections Steel - Supply and demand are weakening, with inventory accumulation and insufficient fundamental support leading to a decline in steel prices [17] - As of January 3, 2025, the procurement volume of Shanghai terminal rebar was 13,800 tons, down 22.03% from the previous week [17] - The production of five major steel varieties was 8.2964 million tons, down 1.64% week-on-week and down 5.34% year-on-year [18] - The total steel inventory was 11.4004 million tons, up 0.50% week-on-week but down 16.47% year-on-year [23] Copper - Domestic copper inventory is increasing, and copper prices are declining due to weak downstream consumption [30] - As of January 3, 2025, the copper smelting fee was $5.20 per ton, down 22.96% from the previous week [32] - LME copper spot price was $8,700 per ton, down 1.61% week-on-week [34] Aluminum - Domestic aluminum production increased by 4.13% year-on-year, but demand is expected to weaken as the holiday season approaches [37] - As of January 3, 2025, LME aluminum spot price was $2,500 per ton, down 1.51% week-on-week [38] Lithium - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,900 yuan per ton, down 0.65% week-on-week [43] - The market is optimistic about January's downstream production, but supply-side production enthusiasm may lead to inventory pressure [42] Precious Metals - As of January 3, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $2,652.70 per ounce, up 0.61% week-on-week [40] - The silver price also saw a slight increase, closing at $30.10 per ounce, up 0.42% week-on-week [40] Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The price of light rare earth praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 398,000 yuan per ton, unchanged week-on-week [51] - Tungsten concentrate price was 143,000 yuan per ton, unchanged week-on-week [55]