COL(300364) 光大证券·2025-01-14 03:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is diversifying and globalizing its IP derivative development, including web literature, micro-dramas, animations, and IP derivatives, which is expected to contribute to incremental performance [1]. - The "Guzi Economy" is a rapidly growing market, projected to reach 168.9 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 40.63% compared to 2023, and is expected to exceed 300 billion RMB by 2029 [2]. - The company has established a matrix of IP categories, including domestic and international IP, and aims to achieve sales of 60-80 million RMB in 2024 from its Guzi products, with potential to exceed 100 million RMB in 2025 [2]. - The company has launched multiple short drama applications and has seen significant success in both domestic and international markets, with its platforms ranking highly in entertainment charts [3]. - The company has utilized AI technology to produce nearly 100 dynamic comics, achieving over 3 billion views, and has expanded into the Japanese and Singaporean markets [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to decline to 1.254 billion RMB in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1.483 billion RMB in 2025 and 1.689 billion RMB in 2026 [4]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is adjusted to -60 million RMB, with expectations of 81 million RMB in 2025 and 126 million RMB in 2026 [4]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease to 39% in 2024 but recover to 45.8% in 2025 and 47.2% in 2026 [9].