食品饮料行业周报：周专题，白酒验证动销反馈，零食关注渠道变革

Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating for the food and beverage sector is "Recommended (Maintained)" [1] Core Views - The report focuses on the feedback from liquor sales verification and the channel transformation in the snack industry [2] - Liquor giants are continuing their repayment processes, with a focus on verifying sales during the Spring Festival [2] - The repayment progress is slightly slower due to the early Spring Festival in 2025 and the ongoing pressure on sales [2] - The demand for liquor during the Spring Festival is relatively rigid, with a more concentrated consumption pattern during the peak season [2] - The 100-300 yuan price range shows stronger resilience [2] - Wuliangye has temporarily halted the supply of its eighth-generation Pu Wu due to low prices in some regions, aiming to stabilize the market and enhance brand value [2] - The WeChat Blue Packet test has expanded, bringing attention to the incremental growth in the snack channel [3] - WeChat and WeChat video accounts have significant potential for e-commerce development, with 13.82 billion monthly active users and a GMV of approximately 100 billion yuan in 2023 [3] - During the WeChat Blue Packet test, some merchants achieved impressive sales data, such as Three Squirrels, which saw a 500%+ increase in daily transactions and new customer acquisition on the first day of testing [3] - Luckin Coffee's gift set sales exceeded 10,000 units, with a 700% increase in visitor traffic on the day of the promotion [3] - Snack brands with strong brand power and high online operational capabilities are expected to benefit from the online gifting scenario [3] - In 2025, leading snack brands are expected to benefit from increased penetration in the vending system, new e-commerce traffic from WeChat stores, and supermarket product introductions [3] Key Recommendations - The food and beverage sector is expected to follow a two-step rhythm, with short-term expectations for fundamental improvements and a focus on industry leaders with high performance certainty and steadily increasing dividend rates [4] - In the liquor sector, the focus remains on high-quality leaders with strong performance certainty, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4] - Other recommended liquor companies include Jin Shiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhuijiu [4] - The beer sector remains a balanced offensive and defensive strategy, with recommended companies including Tsingtao Brewery and Yanjing Brewery [4] - In the food sector, the focus is on leading companies in high-quality tracks, with a ranking of dairy products > catering supply chain > snacks > soft drinks [4] - Recommended food companies include Yili, New Hope Dairy, Zhongju High-tech, Baoli Food, Ligao Food, Yanjin Shop, and Dongpeng Beverage [4] Market Performance Review - The food and beverage index fell by 3.46% this week (January 6-10, 2025), underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.33 percentage points [4] - Among the sub-sectors of food and beverages, only the soft drinks sector (+5.96%) saw an increase this week [4] - Since the beginning of 2025, the food and beverage index has fallen by 6.63%, ranking 18th out of 31 Shenwan primary sub-sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points [13] - The soft drinks sector has risen by 4.38% since the beginning of 2025 [13] Fund Holdings and Valuation - In Q3 2024, the fund holdings ratio for the food and beverage sector was 10.82%, a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21] - The liquor sector's fund holdings ratio was 9.96% in Q3 2024, up by 0.05 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21] - As of January 10, 2025, the food and beverage sector's P/E ratio (TTM) was 19.93 times, compared to the CSI 300's P/E ratio (TTM) of 11.71 times [24] - The liquor and beer sectors had P/E ratios (TTM) of 18.51 and 24.57 times, respectively, as of January 10, 2025 [24] Macro and Industry Data Tracking - In December 2024, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the food, tobacco, and alcohol CPI remaining flat [27] - The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year in December 2024 [27] - In November 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with catering revenue, grain and oil food, and tobacco and alcohol increasing by 4.0%, 10.1%, and -3.1%, respectively [27] - In Q3 2024, the per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents increased by 4.5% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively [27] Liquor Pricing - The price of Feitian Maotai fluctuated slightly, with the latest boxed and loose bottle prices at 2260 and 2230 yuan per bottle, respectively [37] - The price of Pu Wu (eighth generation) was stable at 950 yuan per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 remained stable at 860 yuan per bottle [37] - In the sub-high-end category, the price of Jiannanchun Crystal Sword remained stable at 410 yuan per bottle, and the price of Qinghua 20 was 358 yuan per bottle [37]