有色金属行业周报：金价上行，黄金股估值有望修复

Industry Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in aluminum, copper, and gold [1][4][12] Core Views - Aluminum prices are rising, and the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is recovering due to declining costs and inventory reduction [1] - Copper prices are expected to rise further due to strong inflation expectations and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3] - Gold prices continue to trend upward, supported by geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, and central bank purchases [4] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased slightly, but the market remains under pressure due to oversupply [5] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.00% during the reporting period, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.34 percentage points [21] - Rare earth and magnetic materials sectors showed the largest gains [23] Industrial Metals Aluminum - Aluminum prices increased by 1.54% on SHFE and 2.99% on LME [24] - Electrolytic aluminum inventories decreased by 5.73% on SHFE and 1.31% on LME [25] - Electrolytic aluminum profitability improved, with ton profits rising [45] Copper - Copper prices rose by 3.22% on SHFE and 2.02% on LME [24] - Copper inventories decreased by 5.41% on SHFE and 1.99% on LME [25] - Copper prices are expected to benefit from inflation expectations and supportive policies [3] Zinc - Zinc prices fell by 2.11% on SHFE and 1.00% on LME [24] - Zinc inventories decreased by 10.78% on SHFE and 7.06% on LME [25] Tin - Tin prices increased by 3.32% on SHFE and 3.34% on LME [24] - Tin inventories remained stable, with a slight increase in social inventories [36] Precious Metals Gold - Gold prices rose by 2.44% on COMEX and 1.19% on SHFE [74] - Central banks continued to purchase gold, with China adding 10 tons in December 2024 [43] - Gold ETF holdings increased, reflecting strong investor interest [44] Silver - Silver prices increased by 3.99% on COMEX and 2.19% on SHFE [74] - Silver ETF holdings declined, indicating weaker investor sentiment compared to gold [45] Energy Metals and Rare Earths Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased slightly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 1.07% [112] - Lithium inventories grew, and production is expected to decline in January 2025 [67][71] Cobalt and Nickel - Cobalt prices remained stable, while nickel prices showed mixed trends [112] - Nickel production is expected to decline in January 2025, with a 2.6% drop in nickel pig iron operating rates [76] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices remained strong, with some products like terbium oxide increasing by 2.65% [90] - Rare earth magnet exports from China reached 4,796 tons in November 2024 [94] Industry Developments - Zangge Mining is undergoing a potential change in control, with Zijin Mining Group as a potential buyer [177] - Northern Rare Earth adjusted its rare earth concentrate prices for Q1 2025 to 18,618 yuan/ton [178] - Xingye Silver-Tin's subsidiary received approval for a mining expansion project, increasing capacity to 2.97 million tons/year [179] - Alloy Investment expects a significant increase in net profit for 2024, driven by new energy projects [181]