社会服务行业周报：“两新”政策加力扩围，春运跨区流动预计达90亿人次

Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is Recommended (Maintained) [4] Core Views - Domestic demand remains a key driver of economic growth, with a positive outlook for leading consumer companies [6] - Optional consumption is expected to see both performance and valuation improvements as the economy gradually recovers and market expectations for stable growth policies rise [6] - Social services sector: Recovery in Q4 remains weak, but further downside is limited due to low base effects in 2024 [6] - Human resources sector: A preferred cyclical sector with strong elasticity, benefiting from increased corporate orders and demand for professional HR services [6] - Offline beauty and personal care: Long-term growth potential driven by supply-side innovation, though current sales expectations for the Spring Festival are weak [6] - Cosmetics: Growth has slowed, with structural changes in online channels, but leading domestic brands continue to execute well with big product strategies [6] - Personal care: Competitive landscape is better than cosmetics, with rapid growth in online channels providing opportunities for leading brands [6] - Pet industry: Pet food, especially staple food, shows strong resilience, while pet health products and accessories are growing rapidly [6] - Duty-free sector: High base effects from daigou have been eliminated, and overseas diversion is weakening, with policy support expected to narrow sales declines [6] - Retail sector: Supermarkets, department stores, and specialty chains have seen significant declines, while commercial properties and e-commerce services have been more stable [6] - Gold and jewelry: Currently in a valuation bottoming phase, with demand expected to recover during the Spring Festival season [6] Sub-Sector Performance and Trends Social Services - Performance: The Shenwan Social Services Index fell 3.38% during the period (2025.01.06-2025.01.10), ranking 25th among 31 primary industry indices [8] - Key stocks: Zhangjiajie (+14.92%), Di'A Shares (+13.51%), Xiangyuan Culture (+7.14%) were top gainers, while Mio Exhibition (-16.57%), Chaohongji (-13.35%), and Zhongke Cloud Network (-12.96%) were top decliners [13] Retail - Performance: The Shenwan Retail Index fell 6.57%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industry indices [8] - Key stocks: Kaichun Co (+29.32%), Suhao Hongye (+15.74%), and Guangzhou Baiyunshan (+13.44%) were top gainers, while Zhongbai Group (-31.43%), Baida Group (-24.22%), and Dongbai Group (-21.84%) were top decliners [13] Beauty and Personal Care - Performance: The Shenwan Beauty and Personal Care Index fell 2.73%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry indices [8] - Key stocks: Xinhan New Materials (+11.98%), Jinbo Bio (+5.49%), and Lihe Technology (+3.26%) were top gainers, while Furuida (-8.87%), Shuiyang Co (-6.32%), and Haoyue Nursing (-5.75%) were top decliners [13] Tourism and Hospitality - Spring Festival travel: Cross-regional travel is expected to reach 9 billion trips during the 2025 Spring Festival [15] - Hotel and OTA: Student group air ticket bookings increased by over 10% during the winter vacation [15] - Catering: Gu Ming passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, with GMV reaching 16.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 20.4% YoY [15] Gold and Jewelry - Lao Fengxiang: Launched its official Tmall flagship store, introducing a new snake-themed series for the New Year [16] Duty-Free - Hainan Duty-Free: Extended the lease for the Haikou Duty-Free Store for 60 months, starting from 2026 [17] - Shenzhen Duty-Free: The first urban duty-free store in Shenzhen is set to open in Shenye Shangcheng [17] Retail and E-commerce - Policy support: The government has increased subsidies for home appliance replacements, with single-item subsidies up to 20% of the sales price [19] - E-commerce: Tmall's New Year Shopping Festival saw significant discounts, with government subsidies reaching up to 2,000 yuan for certain categories [22] Beauty and Personal Care Industry - M&A activity: Unilever is in talks to acquire Indian skincare brand Minimalist for approximately $350 million [26] - IPO activity: 11 beauty-related companies successfully went public or listed on the New Third Board in 2024 [26] - Product launches: Estée Lauder launched its new Platinum 6D Black Diamond Eye Cream [28] Company Updates - Jinling Hotel: Terminated its Beijing hotel project, resulting in a loss of approximately 16 million yuan [31] - Hainan Airport: Extended the lease for its duty-free store in Haikou for 60 months [32] - Lishang Guochao: The company's chairman will temporarily act as the general manager following the resignation of the current GM [33] - Boshi Glasses: Announced a cash dividend of 1.10 yuan per 10 shares [34] - Guangbai Co: The chairman and several executives resigned due to work adjustments [35] - Modern Dental: Completed the acquisition of 74% of Hexa Ceram Company Limited [38] - Runben Co: A major shareholder reduced its stake by 1.36% [39] - Fuerjia: Announced a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares [40]