仙鹤股份：成长加速，浆纸一体

Investment Rating - No investment rating provided for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is accelerating its growth through pulp and paper integration, with significant progress in its Hubei and Guangxi projects [2] - The company's production and sales remain robust, with a slight decline in profit per ton due to weak demand and price adjustments [3] - The company's profitability is expected to improve in 2025 due to lower raw material costs and increased self-supply of pulp [3] Industry Overview - The specialty paper industry showed a 3.8% YoY increase in production to 7.43 million tons in 2023, with a 3.1% YoY increase in sales to 7.25 million tons [1] - The industry's operating rate improved by 6.8 percentage points to 84.3% in 2023 [1] - The top 9 companies in the specialty paper industry accounted for 59.2% of the market share, with the company's market share increasing by 0.6 percentage points [1] Company Projects - The Hubei project, focusing on decorative base paper and consumer packaging materials, is expected to contribute over 30,000 tons of production in H1 2024, with additional production lines expected to be operational by early 2025 [2] - The Guangxi project, focusing on daily consumer products, is expected to contribute over 60,000 tons of paper production capacity by early 2025 [2] - Both projects are expected to contribute approximately 700,000 tons of pulp production capacity, with the potential to mitigate cyclical impacts as production ramps up [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 7.738 billion yuan in 2022 to 16.637 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 25.2% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 710 million yuan in 2022 to 1.766 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.7% [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2022 to 16.0% in 2026 [4] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 10.3% in 2022 to 17.7% in 2026 [4] Valuation - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 20.84x in 2022 to 8.38x in 2026 [4] - The company's PB ratio is expected to decrease from 2.15x in 2022 to 1.48x in 2026 [4] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 23.24x in 2023 to 6.84x in 2026 [7]