金属行业周报：临近春节供需走弱，避险情绪支撑金价

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the steel market is experiencing a weakening demand due to the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to an accumulation of steel inventory and a potential decline in steel prices. It is essential to monitor overseas macroeconomic disturbances [1][16]. - For copper, the report notes that the demand is expected to remain weak during the off-season, with tight copper ore supply and low smelting processing fees impacting production. Short-term copper prices are anticipated to fluctuate under raw material support [1][31]. - The aluminum market is also expected to see weakened demand as downstream enterprises begin their holiday breaks, with low inventory providing limited support for aluminum prices. The price of alumina is likely to continue its downward trend [2][38]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the tin industry, driven by the recovery of the global semiconductor sector and demand from AI and new energy developments [3][66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing a decline in demand, with inventory levels rising as the Spring Festival approaches. The average steel price index is reported at 3,548.80 CNY/ton, down 1.97% from the previous week [1][28]. - As of January 10, 2025, the total steel inventory is 1,154.23 million tons, reflecting a 1.22% increase from the previous week but a 16.97% decrease year-on-year [21][22]. - The production of five major steel products is reported at 8.0842 million tons, down 2.56% from the previous week and down 7.00% year-on-year [18]. Copper Industry - The report notes that as of January 10, 2025, the LME copper spot price is 9,000 USD/ton, reflecting a 3.38% increase from the previous week, while SHFE copper inventory has decreased by 30.70% [35][36]. - The copper smelting fees are reported at 4.67 USD/ton for rough smelting and 0.47 cents/pound for refined smelting [34]. Aluminum Industry - The LME aluminum spot price is reported at 2,600 USD/ton, up 3.45% from the previous week, while SHFE aluminum inventory has decreased by 12.18% [39][41]. - The report anticipates that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate weakly due to reduced demand and ongoing cost declines in the electrolytic aluminum industry [2][38]. Precious Metals - As of January 10, 2025, COMEX gold and silver closing prices are reported at 2,717.40 USD/ounce and 31.30 USD/ounce, respectively, with increases of 2.44% and 3.99% from the previous week [43][44]. New Energy Metals - The report indicates that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 76,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.40% increase from the previous week, while the price of lithium concentrate is reported at 813 USD/ton, up 0.99% [46][49]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The price of light rare earth oxide neodymium praseodymium is reported at 400,500 CNY/ton, up 0.63% from the previous week [54].