中煤能源：量增价稳显韧性，分红估值有空间

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience with stable prices and increasing volume, indicating potential for dividend growth [9] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with expectations for an increase in the overall cash dividend rate to approximately 45% for 2024 [22] - The company is positioned among the top tier in coal production, with a steady increase in production and sales [9][10] Company Overview - China Coal Energy is a state-owned enterprise controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a significant market presence [9][16] - The company has maintained a cash dividend rate of around 30% for many years, with a recent introduction of interim dividends [22] - The company has reduced its interest-bearing debt by approximately 32.4 billion yuan over the past three years, improving its financial structure [27] Core Advantages - The company is among the leading coal producers in China, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7% in self-produced coal output from 2018 to 2023 [9][10] - The company employs a long-term sales model, which helps stabilize coal prices against market fluctuations [10] - The integration of coal, chemical, and power sectors creates a profit loop, enhancing operational efficiency [10] Industry Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain stable, with supply pressures likely to keep coal prices from dropping significantly [10] - The chemical sector, particularly polyethylene, is anticipated to see demand growth as macroeconomic policies take effect [10] Earnings Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1799.7 billion yuan, 1831.9 billion yuan, and 1928.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 178.8 billion yuan, 187.8 billion yuan, and 209.0 billion yuan [10] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 8.5, 8.1, and 7.3, respectively, which are below the average of comparable companies [10]