TongQingLou Catering (605108) 天风证券·2025-01-19 01:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 0.64 to 0.93 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 78.9% to 69.6% [1][2]. - The anticipated net profit for Q4 2024 is projected to be a loss of 0.19 billion to a profit of 0.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 119% to 91% [1]. - Despite the challenges in 2024, the company is expected to release operational flexibility in 2025, driven by the full opening of new hotel locations and the performance of its restaurant divisions [3]. Summary by Sections 2024 Performance Expectations - The company forecasts a decline in net profit due to several factors, including the absence of a one-time compensation received in 2023, significant opening costs for new stores, increased financial expenses, and a one-time tax expense from an acquisition [2]. - The company plans to open eight new large-scale stores in 2024, which will incur substantial initial costs while generating limited revenue during their ramp-up phase [2]. 2025 Growth Potential - The company has introduced a new business model with its "Fumao" hotels, with eight locations already opened in 2024 and expected to fully operate in 2025 [3]. - The combination of new hotel openings and the performance of the restaurant division is projected to significantly enhance the company's operational scale and profitability in 2025 [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 2.55 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.10 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 22% [9]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 0.75 billion yuan, with subsequent projections of 2.70 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.70 billion yuan in 2026 [3][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 81X for 2024, 23X for 2025, and 16X for 2026 [3].