耐用消费品2025年展望：看好政策受益者和全球化扩张领跑者；买入美的/海信/老板；下调极米至卖出（摘要）

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea, Hisense, and Robam, while downgrading XGimi to "Sell" and upgrading Man Wah to "Neutral" [8][9][10][27][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the domestic trade-in policy and overseas demand are critical factors influencing revenue and profit growth for durable consumer goods companies in 2025. It predicts an 8% year-on-year increase in appliance sales, driven by a subsidy scale of RMB 100-120 billion and a price demand elasticity of approximately 1.1 [11][12][43]. - The white goods sector, particularly air conditioning, is expected to benefit significantly from the trade-in policy, with increased subsidies and a higher overseas business share [2][16]. - The report highlights that while the growth rate for exports may moderate, emerging markets are expected to outperform developed markets, with a focus on companies with limited exposure to the US market [14][65]. Summary by Sections Trade-in Program Impact - The trade-in program is projected to expand in 2025, including more product categories and increased subsidy limits, which will likely enhance demand for appliances [44][45]. - The report anticipates that categories with high penetration potential, such as robotic vacuum cleaners and dishwashers, will lead growth in 2025, with expected growth rates exceeding 10% [11][45]. Company-Specific Insights - Midea: Expected to achieve 9% revenue growth and 13% profit growth in 2025, benefiting from its leading position in the domestic market and overseas expansion [8][23]. - Hisense: Anticipated to grow revenue and profits by 9% and 14% respectively, supported by improved retail demand and export resilience [9][25]. - Robam: Projected to see an 8% revenue increase and a 12% profit increase, driven by recovery in retail demand and government subsidies [10][26]. - XGimi: Downgraded to "Sell" due to challenges in its core consumer projector business and high valuation relative to fundamentals [27][28]. - Man Wah: Upgraded to "Neutral" as the stock shows limited downside potential and may benefit from the trade-in program [30][31]. Earnings and Target Price Revisions - The report revises earnings forecasts for covered companies down by 4% for 2024-2026, reflecting a more conservative outlook on demand and margins [32][151]. - Target prices for Midea and Hisense remain unchanged, while XGimi's target price is adjusted to reflect its downgraded rating [97][107][117]. Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The average dividend payout ratio for the coverage companies is expected to increase to 53% in 2024, with white goods companies showing the highest yields [88][89]. - The report notes that most companies are trading at or below historical medians, with potential for re-rating among those with improving fundamentals [92][93].