Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable investment rating for Meta, highlighting it as the most attractive stock in terms of risk-reward ratio within the sector [2][6]. Core Insights - The digital advertising and cloud computing sectors are performing strongly, alleviating investor concerns regarding AI capital expenditure returns. Meta shows slight earnings, while Alphabet maintains substantial earnings, but Amazon is expected to incur losses in 2026-2027, prompting a reevaluation of long-term free cash flow valuations [2][3]. - The advertising industry is evolving towards AI and machine learning, with major players like Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet benefiting from this trend. Meta's new growth pillars in AI and its core advertising business leverage AI applications effectively, making it a compelling investment opportunity [2][6]. - Capital intensity among tech companies is expected to peak between 2025 and 2027, but investor skepticism remains regarding the returns on these expenditures. In the next six months, the market will focus more on capacity support, semiconductor industry dynamics, and data center construction [2][6]. Summary by Sections Digital Advertising and Cloud Computing - The digital advertising sector is experiencing robust growth, with search business growing nearly 17% and Meta achieving a mid-20% growth rate. The advertising ecosystem is increasingly driven by AI and machine learning, benefiting only a few large companies [5][6]. - Amazon's strong start in 2026 is overshadowed by unexpected operating profit guidance and capital expenditure intensity, leading to investor concerns about AWS growth compared to Alphabet's cloud services [3][4]. Company Performance and Valuation - Meta is highlighted as having the strongest leverage effect in AI applications within its core advertising business, making it the most attractive investment in the sector [6]. - Amazon's valuation is considered low, trading below 20 times the adjusted earnings per share for 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation [9]. - Google Cloud's (GCP) profit margin increased by 7 percentage points, but it is expected to revert to around 25%. Despite this, GCP has significant growth potential due to a doubling of backlog orders and strong overall market demand [7][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the growth rate for cloud services will remain around 45% in 2026, although profit margins may experience significant declines. Investor expectations are high regarding the conversion of backlog orders into revenue and capital expenditures into capacity [8]. - The report emphasizes the need for clearer visibility on returns from capital expenditures, as investor confidence remains low despite strong demand in the terminal market [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SMIC (00981) with a target price of HKD 134, implying a projected P/E ratio of 71.6x for 2028. The target price for SMIC A-shares (688981.SH) is set at RMB 241.6, reflecting a 196% premium over the H-share valuation [1]. Core Insights - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for SMIC, driven by increasing demand from domestic non-foundry customers and opportunities in AI [1]. - In Q4 of the previous year, SMIC's revenue increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter to USD 2.5 billion, exceeding both the bank's and market expectations by 3%, and surpassing management's guidance of 0% to 2% growth. The gross margin was 19%, aligning with management's guidance of 18% to 20% [1]. - Revenue growth was primarily attributed to a 1% increase in wafer shipments and average selling prices, while the gross margin decreased from 22% in the previous quarter due to higher depreciation and amortization expenses [1]. Management Guidance - For Q1 of this year, management expects revenue to remain flat quarter-on-quarter, which is in line with the bank's forecast of 2% growth and market expectations of flat revenue. The gross margin guidance for Q1 is maintained at 18% to 20%, slightly below the bank's expectation of 21.7% and market expectation of 20.9% [1]. - For the full year, management anticipates revenue growth to exceed the average level of comparable peers, with capital expenditures expected to remain flat year-on-year. The bank believes there is potential for upward revision in this guidance [1].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Chinese economy, with expected GDP growth targets adjusted to a range of 4.5%-5% for 2026, reflecting a conservative approach to fiscal policy and economic expectations [1][7]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is experiencing uneven growth, with exports and manufacturing growth exceeding 5%, while the real estate sector is significantly declining, indicating a structural economic transition towards technology innovation [1][3]. - Local government meetings have revealed a downward adjustment in growth targets for 2026, with a weighted average decrease from 5.3% to 5.1%, suggesting a cautious outlook across most provinces [5][6]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is about 4% for 2026, which is higher than the market's implied rate of 2.5%, but the negative impacts on exports and inflation are expected to be limited [1][9][13]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Expectations - The expected GDP growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%, with an inflation target maintained at around 2% [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at approximately 4% of GDP, with special government bond issuance expected to be consistent with the previous year [7]. Local Government Insights - A majority of provinces have lowered their growth targets, with 21 out of 31 provinces adjusting their goals downwards, indicating a collective preparation for a more cautious economic environment [5][6]. - Core provinces like Beijing and Shanghai have maintained their growth targets around 5%, while Guangdong has adjusted its target down to 4.5%-5% [5]. Currency and Inflation - The RMB is expected to appreciate by about 4% in 2026, which may lead to increased export prices and reduced import prices, potentially exacerbating deflationary pressures [11][13]. - CPI is projected to decrease to 0.3% year-on-year in January 2026, while PPI is expected to be -1.4%, indicating a need to monitor manufacturing cost-driven inflation [16]. Market Dynamics - The stock market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, despite significant sell-offs by state-owned entities, with retail investor sentiment remaining high [17]. - There has been a strong inflow of capital from southbound investments, with net purchases reaching $16 billion, indicating robust interest in Hong Kong stocks [18]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to reach a bottom within at least 12 months, with current policy support deemed insufficient to stimulate demand effectively [29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Mobile has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral" [1] Core Insights - Goldman Sachs states that China Mobile's current valuation is at a reasonable level, with the target price reduced from HKD 105 to HKD 88 [1] - The firm maintains a positive outlook on China Mobile's expansion from traditional telecom services to innovative businesses, despite a continuous slowdown in 5G telecom service growth [1] - Future optimism regarding the stock may arise from improvements in 5G user ARPU, better-than-expected growth in innovative businesses, or faster-than-expected progress in 6G telecom services [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **5G Service Growth**: The latest data indicates that the number of new 5G base stations in China will be 8,000 lower than Goldman Sachs' previous estimates by December 2025. The firm expects a year-on-year decline in new 5G base stations of 8% and 7% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reaching 540,000 and 500,000 [1] - **Innovative Business Growth**: The firm anticipates continued growth in innovative businesses, primarily supported by the expansion of large-scale computing power and the coverage of AI ecosystems [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, believing its current stock price is undervalued due to a high implied weighted average cost of capital of 12% [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company, Innovent Biologics, is expected to maintain its leading position in the Chinese biotechnology sector, driven by a strong pipeline of novel molecules targeting next-generation immuno-oncology [1] - Encouraging preliminary data has been obtained for IBI363, a PD-1/IL-2α bispecific antibody, which exhibits differentiated drug characteristics in immunotherapy and cold tumors [1] - The company's robust commercialization capabilities and deep collaboration with global partners, particularly Eli Lilly, are also emphasized as key strengths [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Investment Rating**: "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 102.85 based on risk-adjusted discounted cash flow [1] - **Market Position**: Innovent Biologics is positioned as a leader in the Chinese biotech field, supported by a strong pipeline and strategic partnerships [1] - **Product Development**: IBI363 shows promising initial results, indicating potential for differentiation in the competitive landscape of immunotherapy [1] - **Commercialization Strength**: The company’s strong commercial capabilities and partnerships enhance its market prospects [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Meitu Inc. with a target price of HKD 16, implying a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 33.1 times for 2027 [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that generative artificial intelligence has transformed Meitu from a "beautification tool" into an "AI photo and video generation and editing application," expanding its market from consumer entertainment to enterprise productivity tools, which is expected to drive growth in monthly active users, payment ratios, and average revenue per user (ARPU) [1] - Revenue for Meitu is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% from 2025 to 2030, with enterprise/productivity revenue expected to account for 44% of total revenue by 2030, up from an anticipated 12% in 2025 [1] - The global AI video and image creative market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 44% from 2025 to 2030, reaching USD 39 billion, with Meitu's market share in AI video/image expected to rise to 2% and 17% by 2030, compared to 1% and 13% in 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil shipping industry, particularly for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) and crude oil transportation, anticipating a super cycle driven by geopolitical factors and sanctions on shadow tankers [1]. Core Insights - Global crude oil supply is expected to stagnate in 2024, but will see an increase of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day from non-OPEC countries starting mid-2025, followed by OPEC countries joining the production increase [1][4]. - Geopolitical factors significantly impact the tanker market, with issues such as U.S.-China port fee disputes leading to vessel delays and increased demand asymmetry [2][5]. - China plays a crucial role in global oil reserves, with an expected addition of at least 100 million barrels of storage capacity by mid-2026, which will boost demand for mainstream raw material imports and vessels [1][6]. - High refining margins are prompting regions like the Middle East, India, Japan, and South Korea to activate idle capacities, with a projected net increase of 1 million barrels per day in refining capacity by 2026 [1][8]. - The global oil supply-demand outlook shows uncertainty, with an expected daily surplus of around 1 million barrels in 2026, potentially lasting into 2027 [1][9]. Summary by Sections Current Oil Tanker Market Drivers - Key drivers include the growth in crude oil production and exports, increased transportation distances, and geopolitical factors affecting demand [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil tanker market is characterized by a complex supply-demand situation, with supply growth expected at 3% in 2026, but actual growth at only 2% due to aging fleets [3][10]. - Demand is projected to grow by 6% in 2026, with a slight decrease in growth rate expected in 2027 [10]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical events, such as potential sanctions relief on Iranian oil, could shift demand from shadow fleets to mainstream fleets, positively impacting VLCC demand [11][12]. Regional Inventory Behaviors - Japan and South Korea are critical regions, with significant increases in crude oil imports, which will impact global oil demand [13]. Clean vs. Dirty Transportation Analysis - The clean and dirty transportation sectors are highly interchangeable, with expected growth rates of 5% to 5.8% for dirty transportation and 2.1% for clean transportation [14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper, predicting a price of $13,000 per ton in Q1 2026 and $12,500 per ton in Q2 2026, while aluminum prices are expected to remain high due to various market factors [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI capital expenditures are driving copper demand towards cyclical industries such as defense, artificial intelligence, electrification, and grid construction, accounting for over 40% of copper demand growth [1][3]. - It is anticipated that there will be a $1 trillion tax refund for U.S. consumers in the first half of 2026, which will significantly impact the market [1][2]. - The U.S. copper tariff policy under Section 232 is expected to be a key factor in the market in the first half of 2025, with a potential 15% tariff on refined copper to be reassessed in mid-2026 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices and aluminum prices have risen over 20% since November 2025, driven by interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion, and AI capital expenditure [2]. - The global copper supply is expected to grow by only about 1% in 2026, with a tightening supply-demand balance as excess supply decreases from 600,000 tons to 300,000 tons [6][7]. - The report notes that while there are disruptions in major mines, overall copper supply remains stable due to new capacities in Africa and Central Asia [6][7]. Demand Trends - The report indicates a significant change in downstream demand due to rising metal prices, with traditional sectors like consumer electronics and hardware manufacturing experiencing a notable decline [5]. - Despite the overall demand slowdown, certain sectors such as the national grid and electric vehicle charging infrastructure may see increased investment, although the actual growth may be limited in the short term [8][9]. Future Projections - The long-term forecast for copper prices is set at $15,000 per ton by 2035, based on supply gap analysis and historical data trends [10]. - The aluminum market is expected to return to a surplus state by 2027, with prices projected to drop to $2,400 per ton [12]. - China's demand for aluminum is expected to grow at a rate of 3%-4% in 2026, which is lower than previous years but still indicates a positive trend [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards the software sector, highlighting a significant net selling and shorting activity, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market [7][14]. Core Insights - The software industry has seen a substantial decline in valuation, with forward P/E ratios dropping from 35x at the end of 2025 to 20x currently, indicating a more comparable valuation to other sectors [14]. - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the software sector continues to show strong sales growth relative to other industries, suggesting potential for recovery [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming AI model updates and tools, which may maintain high volatility in sectors perceived to be at risk from AI disruption [10][14]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report notes that many themes are experiencing high volatility, with the 10-day actual volatility for several indices at the 99th percentile since 2010, indicating a turbulent market environment [4]. - The software sector has been the most shorted and has seen a 55% increase in short positions year-to-date, reflecting investor caution [7]. Valuation Comparisons - Current P/E ratios for various sectors are provided, with the software sector at 26.9x for 2026, significantly lower than the previous year's 50.6x, indicating a major revaluation [9]. - The report highlights that while the software sector's earnings growth remains higher than other sectors, the recent sales growth and profit margins suggest a more reasonable valuation [7][11]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - The report identifies regional banks as a favorable investment due to benefits from a steepening yield curve and regulatory easing, suggesting a positive outlook for this sector [8][31]. - The UK real estate sector is highlighted as undervalued, with potential for recovery driven by improving earnings momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions [33][34]. Global Themes - The report discusses the importance of domestic manufacturing and national security themes, particularly in the context of geopolitical shifts, which may drive investment in these areas [36][40]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is noted as a potential catalyst for market movements, with historical data suggesting strong performance during this period [42].

2026/2/9 15:09 "What A Week!" - Goldman's Top Tech Trader Says 'Dispersion Remains The Name Of The Game' | ZeroHedge "多么精彩的⼀周！"——⾼盛顶级科技交易员称"分 化仍是游戏的核⼼" BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY,FEB 09,2026-08:15 AM "多么糟糕的⼀周啊……"这是⾼盛顶级科技交易员彼得·卡拉汉今天在给客⼾的报告中开头所说的 话。此前，市场经历了近期历史上最为动荡的⼏天——即便从指数层⾯来看，最终结果只是"平平 ⽆奇"…… 可以这么说，上周就是这样的⼀周：周五的收盘铃声（波动率指数为17点左右，标普500指数全周 仅下跌0.1%）很难展现出⼜⼀个忙碌交易周的全貌，⽽我们也结束了今年紧张的前25个交易⽇。 （即：今年表现波动且交易量上升） https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-week-goldmans-top-tech-trader-says-dispersion-remains-name-game 1/8 周⼆、周三 ...