Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on AMZN, SHOP, and CHWY, indicating confidence in their resilience compared to other eCommerce stocks [24][7]. Core Insights - The digital consumer is perceived as resilient but is showing signs of slowing in Q1 operating trends, with expectations for the upcoming earnings season to reflect this dynamic [2][19]. - There is a downward risk to operating estimates in Q2 and beyond due to higher global tariffs, which could negatively impact consumer demand and gross margins for exposed platforms [2][21]. - The report revises the 2025 US eCommerce growth forecast down to +6% YoY from +7.5%, reflecting lower GDP growth expectations [2][24]. Summary by Sections Ratings, Stock Price Performance and Street Estimate Revisions - AMZN's 12-month price target is revised to $255 from $220, with a current price of $173, indicating a 27% upside [7]. - SHOP's price target is adjusted to $150 from $130, with a current price of $84, showing a 55% upside [7]. - CHWY maintains a price target of $45, with a current price of $35, reflecting a 28% upside [7]. Where is the Digital Consumer Today? - The report suggests that the digital consumer remains resilient, but there is a notable slowdown in travel trends and discretionary eCommerce goods [19][20]. - Investor fears have been more anticipatory, reacting to data points from other industries and soft consumer confidence [19][20]. Downside Analysis: What Could Happen to eCommerce Estimates? - The report highlights that eCommerce could decelerate by as much as -10 percentage points in a recession scenario, starting from a revised baseline of +6% YoY growth in 2025 [47][46]. - The analysis provides downside scenario analyses to help investors understand potential risks to estimates in more negative scenarios [46][22]. Refreshing the US eCommerce Industry Model - The report updates the US eCommerce model, reducing growth forecasts due to macroeconomic headwinds and structural views [2][24]. - The analysis indicates that eCommerce stocks face a higher risk of downward estimate revisions compared to the average company in the Internet coverage [23][24]. Key Industry Trends and High-Frequency Data Heading Into Q1 Earnings - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on consumer goods, suggesting that they could accelerate the shift of consumers towards services, benefiting sectors like experiences, travel, and mobility [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, particularly for companies like AMZN [54][56].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest increase in infrastructure investment growth, projecting an increase of 8.5% year-on-year in 2025, compared to 7.2% in 2024 [3][45]. Core Insights - Despite a solid annualized growth rate of around 7% in official infrastructure investment, domestic demand for steel and cement has remained sluggish, primarily due to the unprecedented downturn in the property sector [3][4]. - The shift in infrastructure investment priorities towards utilities and new infrastructure has reduced the marginal impact on steel and cement demand, although this impact appears minor for the post-Covid years [3][10]. - Concerns regarding the quality of fixed asset investment (FAI) data have resurfaced, with discrepancies noted between implied cement demand and official output data [3][36]. Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment has increased by 40% in nominal terms and 27% in real terms compared to 2021, while steel and cement outputs have decreased by 2% and 17% respectively [5][11]. - The prolonged downtrend in property construction has led to a significant divergence between infrastructure and property investment growth since 2022 [11][19]. Structural Factors - The report identifies the property downturn as a major factor offsetting the boost from infrastructure stimulus to steel and cement demand [10][17]. - The marginal impact of infrastructure investment on commodity demand is estimated to be lower than that of property investment, with RMB 100 in property investment boosting ferrous metals value-added by RMB 4.5, compared to RMB 3.3 from infrastructure investment [17][20]. Future Projections - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to increase modestly in 2025, while property investment is projected to remain depressed at -10.0% year-on-year [45]. - A meaningful rise in commodity demand may require a recovery in property construction, which appears unlikely in the near term [45].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the basic materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a deceleration in the downstream order book trend, with feedback from producers indicating a softening in end-user demand, particularly in sectors like solar, EV, and battery [1][5]. - Infrastructure and project funding improvements have also slowed, impacting demand for cement and construction materials [1]. - There is a noted increase in demand from the state grid for copper and aluminum, while demand for appliances and solar installations has shown early signs of weakness [1][4]. Summary by Sections Downstream Demand - The month-over-month (MoM) trend for the order book has softened, with 20% of respondents reporting a pickup in April for downstream sectors and 50% for basic materials, while 47% and 19% reported a decline [5]. - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is estimated to be 2-3% lower, while metals show a year-over-year increase of 0-6% [4]. Steel Sector - The steel sector presents a stable picture, with margins and pricing remaining stable for steel, cement, and coal, while aluminum, copper, and lithium have softened [4]. Coal Sector - Weak demand persists in the coal sector, with ongoing challenges affecting pricing and margins [11]. Cement Sector - Cement pricing remains sustained to offset soft shipment volumes, indicating resilience in pricing strategies despite demand challenges [11]. Aluminum and Copper - The report notes a production cut in alumina and tighter scrap supply for copper, which may influence future pricing and availability [11]. Lithium Market - The lithium market continues to experience a surplus, which could impact pricing dynamics in the near term [11]. Paper Packaging - Seasonal demand is expected to pick up due to downstream restocking activities, providing a potential boost to the paper packaging sector [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a 45% probability of a US recession over the next 12 months, suggesting a cautious investment stance in the current macroeconomic environment [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant tariff-induced impact on US growth, with expectations of a slowdown in hard data by mid-to-late summer, following initial signs of weakness in soft data [1][2]. - Despite recent market reassurances from political figures regarding tariffs, the report suggests that markets are underpricing recession risks, which could lead to vulnerabilities if recession signs emerge [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to seek alternative hedges against recession risks, recommending traditional safe havens such as the Yen, Swiss Franc, and gold [3][6]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a sizable tariff-induced hit to US growth, with a notable risk of recession [1]. - It notes that while soft data shows early signs of slowdown, hard data remains solid for now, likely due to front-loading of purchases ahead of tariffs [1]. - A full-blown recession could push the S&P 500 to around 4,600 and significantly impact the commercial real estate market [2]. China Economic Outlook - The report discusses China's economic performance, indicating that Q1 GDP growth may reflect frontloading in anticipation of US tariffs, with expectations of a significant drag from higher tariffs going forward [9]. - It predicts that Chinese policymakers will intensify easing measures, but the magnitude may not fully offset the tariff drag, leading to a sharp slowdown in GDP growth in Q2 [9]. Commodity and Market Insights - The report highlights the potential for a 25% tariff on US copper imports by mid-2025, which the market is not currently pricing in [9]. - It suggests that despite reduced attractiveness of bonds as hedges, shorter-maturity USTs and curve steepeners could provide protection in a recession scenario [6].

Investment Rating - The report expects US GDP growth to slow from 2.5% last year to just 0.5% this year on a Q4/Q4 basis [2][5]. Core Insights - The slowdown is largely attributed to higher tariffs, tighter financial conditions, and increased policy uncertainty [2][5]. - Initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, and ISM services indices are identified as timely indicators of slower growth [2][12]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to decline as disposable income is affected by rising consumer prices due to tariffs [29][37]. - Capital expenditure (capex) growth is expected to be depressed, with a peak drag anticipated in the second half of 2025 [42][44]. - The labor market is showing initial signs of weakness, with jobless claims being a key indicator [49][54]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - US GDP growth is projected to decrease significantly, reflecting the impact of tariffs and financial conditions [2][5]. - Historical data suggests that hard economic indicators typically show signs of weakness about four months after a growth slowdown begins [20][62]. Consumer Spending - Higher tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices, leading to a slowdown in consumer spending as disposable income declines [29][37]. - Core retail sales are highlighted as a reliable indicator of consumer spending during growth slowdowns [37][38]. Capital Expenditure - Tighter financial conditions and policy uncertainty are likely to negatively impact capex growth, with a significant drag expected in 2025 [42][44]. - Historical analysis indicates that soft data on capex tends to deteriorate before hard data, which may take longer to reflect the slowdown [46][48]. Labor Market - Initial jobless claims are considered a timely indicator of economic slowdown, with expectations of increased claims as the economic outlook worsens [49][54]. - The report notes that while layoffs remain low, hiring in sectors like healthcare and education may slow down significantly [41][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock, reflecting a balanced view on potential risks and long-term profit improvements driven by increased software revenue from Full Self-Driving (FSD) [2][45][68]. Core Insights - The report presents mixed results, highlighting weaker 1Q25 non-GAAP EPS of $0.27 compared to the Street estimate of $0.41, while also noting that the automotive non-GAAP gross margin excluding regulatory credits was above consensus [1][44]. - Key areas of investor focus include vehicle deliveries, FSD and robotaxi progress, and margins in automotive and energy sectors [2][47][61]. Vehicle Deliveries - The report indicates a reduction in delivery estimates for 2025 to 1.70 million vehicles, reflecting a 5% year-over-year decline, and further adjustments for 2026 and 2027 estimates [17][54][63]. - Tesla plans to start production of new lower-cost models in the first half of 2025, but management suggests limited differentiation from existing models due to production on current lines [2][47][39]. FSD and Robotaxi Progress - Tesla aims to begin robotaxi operations in June in Austin with an initial small launch of 10-20 vehicles, although a wider scale ramp is expected to be slower than initially targeted [18][55][40]. - The report notes that FSD and robotaxi operations may significantly contribute to Tesla's financials by mid-2026 [19][55]. Margins in Automotive and Energy - The automotive non-GAAP gross margin excluding credits was reported at 12.5%, slightly below the estimate of 13.0% but above the Street consensus of 11.6% [20][61]. - The energy gross margin was better than forecasted, with Tesla implementing strategies to mitigate potential tariff impacts [21][28]. Financial Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025 have been lowered to $93.17 billion from $94.24 billion, with EPS estimates adjusted to $1.20 from $1.50 [4][63]. - The report outlines a decrease in expected growth rates for total revenue and EBITDA, with total revenue growth projected at -4.6% for 2025 [9][63].

Investment Ratings - Dahua: Sell [1][2][39] - Arcsoft: Sell [1][14][36] - Chinasoft Intl.: Neutral [1][24][34] Core Insights - Dahua launched the Xinghan foundation model 2.0 to enhance product competitiveness, but market demand is expected to remain low in 2025, particularly in China [2][3] - Arcsoft's growth is driven by AI and smart driving technologies, with management targeting high double-digit to triple-digit revenue growth in 2025 [14][15] - Chinasoft Intl. is expected to recover in 2025, driven by Huawei's product deployment and a positive outlook for traditional IT services [24][25] Dahua Summary - 1Q25 net income increased by 16% YoY to RMB 653 million, but was 14% below estimates; revenues were up 1% YoY but down 36% QoQ [3][7] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 were revised down by 21%, 16%, and 15% respectively due to lower revenue visibility and increased R&D investments [8][10] - Target price revised down to RMB 14.28, reflecting a 9% downside [10] Arcsoft Summary - 1Q25 revenues were up 14% YoY to RMB 209 million, but 10% lower than estimates; net income was up 45% YoY to RMB 50 million [15][16] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2026 were revised down by 19% and 15% respectively, reflecting competition and modest demand [21][22] - Target price revised up to RMB 37.5, indicating a 14% downside [22] Chinasoft Intl. Summary - 2H24 revenues returned to positive YoY growth at +4%, with operating income largely in line with estimates [27][29] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 were cut by 3%, 2%, and 2% respectively due to gross margin misses and pricing pressures [30][34] - Target price set at HK$5.5, based on a 15.4x 2025E P/E [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Eoptolink, with a revised 12-month target price of Rmb123, indicating a potential upside of 51.5% from the current price of Rmb81.2 [9][17]. Core Insights - Eoptolink's revenue for 1Q25 reached Rmb4.05 billion, representing a 264% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase, which aligns closely with Goldman Sachs' estimate of Rmb3.99 billion. The net profit of Rmb1.57 billion exceeded estimates by 11%, driven by strong margin expansion with a gross margin of 48.7% [1][2]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ramp-up of 400G and 800G optical transceivers, particularly in AI infrastructure, which is expected to be a primary earnings driver in 2025 [15]. - Eoptolink's net profit has converged with that of its larger peer, Innolight, despite having a market capitalization that is only 65% of Innolight's, suggesting a potential narrowing of the valuation gap due to Eoptolink's strong profitability and growth momentum [1][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Eoptolink's revenue growth has been robust, with sequential increases of 49%, 46%, and 15% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q24, 4Q24, and 1Q25, respectively. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of Rmb6.4 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 126% [2][9]. - The gross margin has shown significant improvement, reaching 48.7% in 1Q25, which is well above peer levels, attributed to better cost efficiency and the ramp of 800G products [2][6]. Estimate Revisions - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upward by up to 10%, and net profit estimates have been increased by up to 40% due to the reversal of negative pricing impacts from tariffs and stronger-than-expected margin performance [8][9]. - The new revenue estimates for 2025E are Rmb17.12 billion, with a gross margin projected at 48.8% [10][17]. Market Position and Valuation - Eoptolink is trading near its historical trough level P/E, which is considered attractive given the expected growth and profitability [15]. - The report highlights that the stock's valuation is set in line with the company's trough level P/E during 2021-2025, reflecting uncertainties in the tariff and demand outlook [9][15].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that US tariffs are expected to significantly affect global trade flows and economic activity, suggesting a cautious investment outlook in the affected sectors [2][10][19]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring business surveys as timely indicators of trade impacts from tariffs, with a focus on new export orders [3][9][19]. - It highlights that a 1-point pullback in new export orders has historically predicted a 0.75 percentage point slowdown in year-over-year export growth [9][13]. - The report notes that actual exports from several economies have recently increased due to frontloading but are expected to decline with the implementation of tariffs [10][20]. - Trade releases from over 50% of US trade partners will be closely monitored as they are predictive of US trade flows, with specific dates for releases provided [11][15]. Summary by Sections Trade Impact Analysis - The report discusses the anticipated effects of US tariffs on global trade, particularly focusing on the manufacturing sector and export orders [2][10]. - It mentions that early data from countries like South Korea show a significant pullback in exports due to tariff hikes [17][20]. Data Monitoring - A detailed calendar of upcoming business surveys and trade data releases is provided, indicating the importance of these metrics in assessing the impact of tariffs [6][11]. - The report suggests that monitoring port traffic data can provide alternative signals of shifting trade patterns, although it may be noisier [19][20]. Statistical Insights - The report includes statistical analysis indicating that a decline in new export orders correlates with a slowdown in export growth, emphasizing the predictive nature of these surveys [9][13]. - It also notes that the full impact of tariffs on trade may be delayed due to frontloading incentives and exemptions for items in transit at the time of tariff implementation [10][19].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for oil prices, with expectations for prices to edge down to the low 60s by year-end, even if the US avoids recession [3]. Core Insights - US spot demand remains resilient, with gasoline and jet fuel demand nowcasts showing a combined increase of 140 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) year-on-year [1][7]. - OPEC+ compliance is expected to improve in the coming weeks, with total monthly cuts ranging from 0.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 0.5 mb/d until June 2026 [1]. - OECD Europe oil demand nowcast fell by 0.6 mb/d to 12.7 mb/d, while India oil demand decreased by 3% year-on-year in March [2][30]. - The US continues to exert pressure on China through sanctions on Chinese refineries and proposed fees on Chinese vessels docked in the US, which may increase effective freight rates [1]. Supply Summary - Trackable net supply increased by 0.6 mb/d week-on-week due to lower OECD Europe demand, while OECD commercial stocks decreased by 18 million barrels (mb) from last week [3][12]. - US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands at 11.3 mb/d, in line with expectations, while Canada liquids nowcast remains at 6.3 mb/d [12][19]. - Seaborne exports from Venezuela fell by 0.3 mb/d week-on-week, marking the largest weekly drop on record since 2022 [11]. Demand Summary - US gasoline and jet fuel demand estimates are up by 140 kb/d year-on-year, indicating strong demand resilience [1][7]. - China's oil demand nowcast remains stable at 16.8 mb/d, aligning with April expectations [24]. - OECD commercial stocks are now 72 mb below their year-ago level, reflecting ongoing demand pressures [42]. Inventory Summary - OECD total oil commercial stocks nowcast edged down by 18 mb to 2,743 mb last week, standing 30 mb below the end-of-April forecast [34]. - Global commercial visible inventories decreased by 52 mb last week, indicating tightening supply conditions [11]. Price Trends - Brent prices have remained resilient despite recent fluctuations, supported by tight physical oil market conditions [1]. - The Brent 1M/36M timespread gap with fair value is currently at -14 percentage points (pp), indicating a significant deviation from historical norms [44].