Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock, reflecting a balanced view on potential risks and long-term profit improvements driven by increased software revenue from Full Self-Driving (FSD) [2][45][68]. Core Insights - The report presents mixed results, highlighting weaker 1Q25 non-GAAP EPS of 0.41, while also noting that the automotive non-GAAP gross margin excluding regulatory credits was above consensus [1][44]. - Key areas of investor focus include vehicle deliveries, FSD and robotaxi progress, and margins in automotive and energy sectors [2][47][61]. Vehicle Deliveries - The report indicates a reduction in delivery estimates for 2025 to 1.70 million vehicles, reflecting a 5% year-over-year decline, and further adjustments for 2026 and 2027 estimates [17][54][63]. - Tesla plans to start production of new lower-cost models in the first half of 2025, but management suggests limited differentiation from existing models due to production on current lines [2][47][39]. FSD and Robotaxi Progress - Tesla aims to begin robotaxi operations in June in Austin with an initial small launch of 10-20 vehicles, although a wider scale ramp is expected to be slower than initially targeted [18][55][40]. - The report notes that FSD and robotaxi operations may significantly contribute to Tesla's financials by mid-2026 [19][55]. Margins in Automotive and Energy - The automotive non-GAAP gross margin excluding credits was reported at 12.5%, slightly below the estimate of 13.0% but above the Street consensus of 11.6% [20][61]. - The energy gross margin was better than forecasted, with Tesla implementing strategies to mitigate potential tariff impacts [21][28]. Financial Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025 have been lowered to 94.24 billion, with EPS estimates adjusted to 1.50 [4][63]. - The report outlines a decrease in expected growth rates for total revenue and EBITDA, with total revenue growth projected at -4.6% for 2025 [9][63].
高盛：特斯拉-业绩与评论喜忧参半
高盛·2025-04-24 01:55