高盛：中国基础材料监测-2025 年 4 月-增长放缓

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the basic materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a deceleration in the downstream order book trend, with feedback from producers indicating a softening in end-user demand, particularly in sectors like solar, EV, and battery [1][5]. - Infrastructure and project funding improvements have also slowed, impacting demand for cement and construction materials [1]. - There is a noted increase in demand from the state grid for copper and aluminum, while demand for appliances and solar installations has shown early signs of weakness [1][4]. Summary by Sections Downstream Demand - The month-over-month (MoM) trend for the order book has softened, with 20% of respondents reporting a pickup in April for downstream sectors and 50% for basic materials, while 47% and 19% reported a decline [5]. - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is estimated to be 2-3% lower, while metals show a year-over-year increase of 0-6% [4]. Steel Sector - The steel sector presents a stable picture, with margins and pricing remaining stable for steel, cement, and coal, while aluminum, copper, and lithium have softened [4]. Coal Sector - Weak demand persists in the coal sector, with ongoing challenges affecting pricing and margins [11]. Cement Sector - Cement pricing remains sustained to offset soft shipment volumes, indicating resilience in pricing strategies despite demand challenges [11]. Aluminum and Copper - The report notes a production cut in alumina and tighter scrap supply for copper, which may influence future pricing and availability [11]. Lithium Market - The lithium market continues to experience a surplus, which could impact pricing dynamics in the near term [11]. Paper Packaging - Seasonal demand is expected to pick up due to downstream restocking activities, providing a potential boost to the paper packaging sector [11].