高盛：关税引发的美国衰退风险、中国增长前景趋缓、美国铜关税

Investment Rating - The report indicates a 45% probability of a US recession over the next 12 months, suggesting a cautious investment stance in the current macroeconomic environment [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant tariff-induced impact on US growth, with expectations of a slowdown in hard data by mid-to-late summer, following initial signs of weakness in soft data [1][2]. - Despite recent market reassurances from political figures regarding tariffs, the report suggests that markets are underpricing recession risks, which could lead to vulnerabilities if recession signs emerge [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to seek alternative hedges against recession risks, recommending traditional safe havens such as the Yen, Swiss Franc, and gold [3][6]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a sizable tariff-induced hit to US growth, with a notable risk of recession [1]. - It notes that while soft data shows early signs of slowdown, hard data remains solid for now, likely due to front-loading of purchases ahead of tariffs [1]. - A full-blown recession could push the S&P 500 to around 4,600 and significantly impact the commercial real estate market [2]. China Economic Outlook - The report discusses China's economic performance, indicating that Q1 GDP growth may reflect frontloading in anticipation of US tariffs, with expectations of a significant drag from higher tariffs going forward [9]. - It predicts that Chinese policymakers will intensify easing measures, but the magnitude may not fully offset the tariff drag, leading to a sharp slowdown in GDP growth in Q2 [9]. Commodity and Market Insights - The report highlights the potential for a 25% tariff on US copper imports by mid-2025, which the market is not currently pricing in [9]. - It suggests that despite reduced attractiveness of bonds as hedges, shorter-maturity USTs and curve steepeners could provide protection in a recession scenario [6].