We compare our own deficit forecasts with a growth-neutral benchmark to estimate growth-relevant changes in the budget deficit at the quarterly frequency. We combine this with our estimates of each country's fiscal multiplier to compute a fiscal policy impulse on growth. For more information on methodology, see "Global Economics Analyst: Fiscal Come, Fiscal Go (Struyven/Milo)" (August 24, 2021). 15 April 2025 | 1:45AM EDT Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: More Fiscal Easing in China Please find an upda ...

Our EM Macro Navigator publication offers a bird's-eye view of the themes, market trends, and events we believe should be on every EM investor's radar. What's inside… Summary of the latest EM developments: We assess the channels of impact through which US tariffs affect EM economies. Country-by-country forecasts and views: We have downgraded forecasts across EMs, particularly in Asia, given the tariff shock, tightening in financial conditions, and worsening outlook for DM demand. Index of EM research: Curat ...

17 April 2025 | 6:57PM HKT China Healthcare Service & Devices FY24 wrap-up: Monitoring the surgical volume recovery and reimbursement control in FY25 Post FY24 results season, we update estimates for our covered device/service names to incorporate recent industry trends (including hospital traffic recovery, recent regulatory update (VBP), competitive landscape) and company-specific developments. This results in revisions to our sales estimates of avg. -1.6%/ -2.2%/ -0.7% and earnings estimates of avg. -13.3 ...

We hosted Capcon (private) management on April 17 in Hong Kong during our Private Technology Tour (report link). Overall, management expects increasing demand of advanced packaging tools driven by AI and high power chips. Management sees their strength in providing tools with higher throughput, which can increase the efficiency and profitability of its clients. Management also highlighted their early development in FOPLP equipment, for which they have obtained an international leading IDM as its customer. 1 ...

16 April 2025 | 12:35PM HKT China: 70-city average primary property prices fell further in March Bottom line: The National Bureau of Statistics' 70-city house price data suggest the weighted average property price in the primary market decreased by 2.2% mom annualized in March after seasonal adjustments. The divergence between top-tier and lower-tier cities persists. Tier-1 cities continued to show sequential increases in primary home prices in March, though the pace slowed from February, but prices in Tier ...

17 April 2025 | 8:47PM HKT China: Consumer Dashboard 2025Q1: Household consumption growth improved on the eve of "reciprocal" tariff (Yang) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (A ...

16 April 2025 | 9:12PM EDT Global Economics Wrap-Up: April 16, 2025 Global Economics (4/16/25 7:50PM ET) Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Katya Vashkinskaya +44(20)7774-4833 | katya.vashkinskaya@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Blair ...

16 April 2025 | 11:24PM HKT China Healthcare Analysis on the tariff impact, overall limited for our coverage, awaiting updates on potential pharmaceutical In this report we provide an updated view of the potential tariff impact on our covered China Healthcare names across various sub-sectors and sensitivity analysis for key names, following our previous report in Feb 2025 (link). We see the tariff impact on our covered Chinese healthcare names as manageable, while we await clarity on potential sector-specif ...

14 April 2025 | 8:32AM CST HG Tech (000988.SZ): 1Q25 net profit beat; Rmb415mn at mid-point, +43% YoY; Buy HG Tech pre-announced 1Q25 net profit range of Rmb390mn-440mn, or Rmb415mn at mid-point (+43% YoY, +47% QoQ), 18.6% above GSe (see our 1Q25 Preview report). Heading into the print, the key investor concern has been on the poor optical transceiver profitability (for China market) and that it is unlikely to drive meaningful profit growth despite the strong revenue potential from China AI demand. The soli ...

ISSUE 138 | April 17, 2025 | 3:55 PM EDT TARIFF-INDUCED RECESSION RISK The Trump Administration's dramatic tariff moves have upended decades of US trade policy, sparking a rapid reassessment of the US and global economic outlook and a surge in tariff-induced recession fears. What lies ahead for the US economy amid this radical policy shift—and the uncertainty around it—is Top of Mind. We speak to three economy-watchers about their views on recession risk: Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman (a recession seems l ...