13 April 2025 | 7:32PM EDT Goldman Sachs Oil Analyst 18.7 19.2 18.3 18.3 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 18.0 16.0 16.0 New Balance Mar 16 Balance Baseline Growth, Global Slowdown, OPEC 2.2mb/d Unwind OPEC Baseline Global Slowdown, OPEC 2.2mb/d Unwind US Shale (L48 Crude and Total NGL) Production in Q4 2026 mb/d mb/d US Shale Production in 2026Q4 Would Undershoot Our Mid March Forecast by 1.2mb/d in a Scenario With a Global Slowdown and Where OPEC Unwinds All ...

13 April 2025 | 6:39PM HKT China: Three things in China Three quick highlights from China: n Cutting GDP forecasts on higher tariffs: With the US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods shooting up to more than 100%, Chinese exports to the US are likely to decline dramatically. We expect policymakers to step up easing efforts significantly and have raised our estimate of the "augmented fiscal deficit" to 14.5% of GDP from 13.8%. That said, we think achieving the government's "around 5%" GDP growth target th ...

13 April 2025 | 9:24PM HKT Asia in Focus How Easily Can US Importers Pivot Away from Chinese Suppliers? (Song/Chen) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song ...

13 April 2025 | 7:27PM HKT China: Macro CIO Tour Takeaways Following a week marked by rapid tariff escalations and heightened market volatility, we hosted our China Macro CIO Tour in Beijing on April 11th. Discussions were predominantly centered around US tariff-related topics. Our speakers also addressed issues including the property market's recovery, potential government strategies to offset the impact of tariffs, and the growth outlook for the year. Key takeaways are summarized below. 1. Size of US Tari ...

March total social financing (TSF) flows and new RMB loans came in above market expectations, mainly due to strong expansion of short-term corporate loans. Government bond issuance remained faster than implied by seasonality. These signal a policy-mandated credit expansion in March, resembling the observed pattern this January. Fiscal deposits declined in March, likely due to spending from bond issuance proceeds for the debt swap program, which may have boosted M1 growth this month. However, the front-loade ...

13 April 2025 | 7:45PM HKT GC Tech: Apple supply chain tariff updates: Smartphone/ PC/ Server/ Semis exempted from US tariff On April 11, US Customs and Border Protection released further guidance on tariff exclusion (Announcement), indicating a range of electronics and semiconductor products that are excluded from the Reciprocal Tariff announced by US president Trump earlier (Read more in our report regarding the impact of Reciprocal tariff). The list of exemption includes smartphones, computers, servers, ...

USA: GS Economic Indicators Update (Rindels) 7 April 2025 | 1:52PM EDT Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. The nominal GS US Financial Conditions Index tightened by 42.5bp to 99.95 over the last week, mostly due to lower equity prices, and the real GS US FCI tightened by 50.2bp to 99.62: Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec P ...

7 April 2025 | 8:15PM EDT Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: Reciprocal Tariffs Trigger a Sharp Tightening in Financial Conditions Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@ ...

10 April 2025 | 5:02AM EDT Global Datacenters GS Datacenter supply/demand model update: Loosening earlier than expected; still tight by historical standards Since we introduced our first datacenter supply/demand model, the datacenter market has contended with the impact of multiple AI-related announcements, including the impact of DeepSeek on AI training (and datacenter power demand) and multiple supply announcements including Stargate's datacenter facilities. Our global technology team cut estimates for AI ...

11 April 2025 | 9:59PM BST GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 | Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagf ...