高盛：石油追踪-美国现货需求持续强劲

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for oil prices, with expectations for prices to edge down to the low 60s by year-end, even if the US avoids recession [3]. Core Insights - US spot demand remains resilient, with gasoline and jet fuel demand nowcasts showing a combined increase of 140 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) year-on-year [1][7]. - OPEC+ compliance is expected to improve in the coming weeks, with total monthly cuts ranging from 0.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 0.5 mb/d until June 2026 [1]. - OECD Europe oil demand nowcast fell by 0.6 mb/d to 12.7 mb/d, while India oil demand decreased by 3% year-on-year in March [2][30]. - The US continues to exert pressure on China through sanctions on Chinese refineries and proposed fees on Chinese vessels docked in the US, which may increase effective freight rates [1]. Supply Summary - Trackable net supply increased by 0.6 mb/d week-on-week due to lower OECD Europe demand, while OECD commercial stocks decreased by 18 million barrels (mb) from last week [3][12]. - US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands at 11.3 mb/d, in line with expectations, while Canada liquids nowcast remains at 6.3 mb/d [12][19]. - Seaborne exports from Venezuela fell by 0.3 mb/d week-on-week, marking the largest weekly drop on record since 2022 [11]. Demand Summary - US gasoline and jet fuel demand estimates are up by 140 kb/d year-on-year, indicating strong demand resilience [1][7]. - China's oil demand nowcast remains stable at 16.8 mb/d, aligning with April expectations [24]. - OECD commercial stocks are now 72 mb below their year-ago level, reflecting ongoing demand pressures [42]. Inventory Summary - OECD total oil commercial stocks nowcast edged down by 18 mb to 2,743 mb last week, standing 30 mb below the end-of-April forecast [34]. - Global commercial visible inventories decreased by 52 mb last week, indicating tightening supply conditions [11]. Price Trends - Brent prices have remained resilient despite recent fluctuations, supported by tight physical oil market conditions [1]. - The Brent 1M/36M timespread gap with fair value is currently at -14 percentage points (pp), indicating a significant deviation from historical norms [44].