欧派家居：24Q4利润表现优异

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to face significant challenges in 2024, with projected revenue and profit declines due to various factors including pressure on new home sales and changes in the industry ecosystem [1][2] - Despite the challenges, the company is actively innovating and restructuring to improve efficiency and maintain profitability, with profit metrics expected to outperform revenue metrics [2] - The company is likely to benefit from government subsidies aimed at promoting home renovation and smart home consumption, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 27.0 billion, 28.8 billion, and 31.7 billion respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts Q4 2024 revenue between 43.5 billion to 66.3 billion, with a year-on-year change of -30% to +7% [1] - The expected net profit for Q4 2024 is projected to be between 5.5 billion to 8.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -24% to +18% [1] - For the full year 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 182 billion to 205 billion, a decrease of 10% to 20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.8 billion to 28.8 billion, a decrease of 5% to 15% year-on-year [1] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be around 4.08 billion, with a decline from previous years [3][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "whole home" strategy to counteract industry downturns, focusing on both integrated and retail home furnishing segments [2] - Innovations in sales models and support for traditional distributors are part of the company's strategy to stabilize its market position [2] - The company is also enhancing its supply chain efficiency and management practices through various reforms [2]