PDH(600048) 长江证券·2025-01-21 11:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - Despite the inevitable cyclical pressures, the company is expected to achieve sustained performance that exceeds the industry average due to its competitive advantages in financing, land acquisition, and brand reputation. The valuation is at a relatively low point, indicating potential for short-term recovery. The optimization of the market structure supports the long-term investment logic, and the issuance of convertible bonds will accelerate the process of increasing market share. The downward pressure on industry volume and price is gradually easing, providing substantial assurance for the company's mid-term scale and profitability, with significant upside potential for its stable market value compared to the current valuation [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 312.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.02 billion yuan, down 58.4%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.49 billion yuan, a decline of 61.9% [4][10]. Sales and Investment Trends - The company achieved sales of 323 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 23.5%, with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters, down 24.7%. The average selling price increased by 1.6% to 18,000 yuan per square meter. The company adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, with a total investment of 68.3 billion yuan, down 58.2%, and a land area of 3.29 million square meters, down 69.4% [10]. Future Outlook - The company has received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for the issuance of up to 9.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds, which is expected to enhance its financial strength and optimize its debt structure. This will position the company favorably for future opportunities in acquiring quality land reserves and integrating existing market resources [10]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.7 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 21.9 and 22.9 times. The current valuation is seen as having significant room for improvement, despite the ongoing cyclical downturn [10].