Zhuzhou Kibing (601636) 光大证券·2025-01-21 11:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qibin Group (601636.SH) with a current price of 5.73 CNY [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decline in the company's performance due to a downturn in the glass market, with glass prices having reached a bottom and are now rebounding [4][5] - The forecast for 2024 indicates a substantial drop in net profit, with an expected range of 330-410 million CNY, representing a year-on-year decline of 77%-81% [4] - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter of 2024 may mark the bottom of the company's profitability, with potential for recovery in subsequent quarters [7] Summary by Sections Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 2.684 billion - Total market capitalization: 15.377 billion CNY - 1-year price range: 4.60 CNY (low) to 8.12 CNY (high) - Recent turnover rate: 112.11% [1] Earnings Performance - The report notes a relative performance decline of -20.18% over the past year [3] - Absolute performance shows a decrease of -1.11% year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast - Expected revenue for 2024 is 15.004 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.33% from 2023 [9] - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is adjusted to 372 million CNY, down 83% from previous estimates [7] Glass Price Trends - The average price of float glass in 2024 is projected to be 1588 CNY/ton, down 18% from 2023 [5] - By Q4 2024, the average price is expected to recover to approximately 1330 CNY/ton [5] Solar Glass Price Trends - The average price of 2.0mm coated solar glass in 2024 is expected to be 15.26 CNY/sqm, down 18% from 2023 [6] - Recent trends indicate a recovery in solar glass prices, with a rise from a low of 11.5 CNY/sqm to 12 CNY/sqm [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite the significant decline in profit margins for both float and solar glass, the current price levels indicate a potential for recovery [7] - The diversified layout of the company in the glass sector presents growth potential, supporting the "Buy" rating [7]