Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 41.02 CNY and a fair value of 53.91 CNY [3][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face short-term performance pressure but is anticipated to enter a recovery phase by 2025. The external environment and the pace of expansion are impacting performance negatively in 2024 [7][8]. - The company has a strong position in the private hospital sector in China, benefiting from a differentiated business structure and nationwide layout, which provides significant growth potential [8][16]. Financial Forecast - The company's revenue is projected to be 26.89 billion CNY in 2024, 30.06 billion CNY in 2025, and 33.62 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of -1.1%, 11.8%, and 11.8% respectively [2][17]. - The EBITDA is expected to be 325 million CNY in 2024, 654 million CNY in 2025, and 943 million CNY in 2026 [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -82 million CNY in 2024, 110 million CNY in 2025, and 284 million CNY in 2026 [2]. Business Segments 1. Refractive Surgery Business - The refractive surgery segment is expected to generate revenues of 12.43 billion CNY in 2024, 13.76 billion CNY in 2025, and 15.24 billion CNY in 2026, with a gross margin of 45.0%, 47.0%, and 49.0% respectively [9]. 2. Optometry Business - Revenue from the optometry segment is projected to be 3.81 billion CNY in 2024, 4.22 billion CNY in 2025, and 4.67 billion CNY in 2026, with gross margins of 44.0%, 46.0%, and 48.0% respectively [10]. 3. Cataract Surgery Business - The cataract segment is expected to generate revenues of 6.20 billion CNY in 2024, 7.13 billion CNY in 2025, and 8.21 billion CNY in 2026, with gross margins of 32.0%, 34.0%, and 36.0% respectively [11][12]. 4. Comprehensive Eye Disease Business - Revenue from comprehensive eye disease services is forecasted to be 4.29 billion CNY in 2024, 4.76 billion CNY in 2025, and 5.29 billion CNY in 2026, with gross margins of 10.0%, 12.0%, and 14.0% respectively [13]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the private hospital sector, with a focus on major cities which have high consumer spending potential. However, it still lags behind industry leaders in terms of revenue scale and profitability [16][17].
普瑞眼科：短期业绩承压，25年有望进入修复期