月度美国宏观洞察：特朗普2.0拉开帷幕

Trade Policy and Inflation - Trump announced a 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico starting February 1, which could raise U.S. inflation by approximately 0.46 percentage points if fully passed on to consumers[7] - The actual impact of tariffs may be less due to potential currency fluctuations and trade negotiations, particularly with the EU and China[2] - Trump's tariff threats appear to be more of a political bargaining chip rather than immediate policy changes[10] Economic Data and Labor Market - December's core CPI inflation rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points to 0.23%, indicating a moderate decline in inflation[10] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.231% to 4.086%[13] - Retail sales showed a 0.4% month-on-month increase in December, reflecting consumer resilience despite concerns over future inflation[17] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in January, with the likelihood of 3-4 rate cuts throughout the year, each by 25 basis points[25] - The Fed's recent hawkish stance has reduced its forecast for rate cuts from five to two for the year[27] - High U.S. Treasury yields are anticipated to impact economic momentum and labor market performance throughout the year[25] Financial Market Trends - The U.S. dollar index is projected to remain strong around 108 in the short term, influenced by tariff policies and interest rate expectations[28] - The ten-year Treasury yield is forecasted to end the year at 4.1%, up from a previous estimate of 3.8%[29] - Concerns over slow rate cuts could lead to recession risks and potential financial crises in the U.S.[4]